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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS63 KBIS 221505
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1005 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Critical fire weather conditions mid-day today into this
  evening over southwest and south central North Dakota
  including the James River Valley. A Red Flag Warning has been
  issued.

- Winds gusting 45 to 50 mph over most of western and central
  North Dakota today through this evening. A Wind Advisory has
  been issued.

- Unsettled pattern develops for the later part of the work week
  into the weekend. This will bring daily shower chances with
  possibly some thunderstorms.

&&

.UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 1005 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Rain showers continue to push across southeastern portions of
the CWA this morning. These should exit the CWA by noon. A few
gusts of 40 to 50 mph are possible with these showers. An SPS
remains in these areas until 1100. Otherwise look for west
northwest to start increasing across the area today. More
showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms could return this
afternoon and evening, mainly in the north. Temperatures will
remain near normal. Overall the forecast remains on track.

UPDATE
Issued at 643 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

For morning update, main concern is winds from the light rain
showers now passing eastward through south central North Dakota
into the James River Valley. Some strong wind gusts have
occurred with these showers given the dry lower atmosphere which
can clearly be seen on the latest KBIS sounding. A little
before 6 am, Bismarck Airport has a gust of 54 mph. Therefore,
have issued a Special Weather Statement for remaining areas the
showers will move through concerning the potential for the
strong gusts.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 359 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Current surface analysis places low along the Saskatchewan and
Manitoba border, with cold front now working its way through
western North Dakota. Behind the front, winds have switched to
the west/northwest and become gusty. Upper level analysis
places compact low over southern Saskatchewan. Radar showing and
area of reflectivity stretching from north-central into
southwest North Dakota with the initial wave ahead of the upper
low generally in the vicinity of the front. With that said,
little if any precipitation is hitting the ground per latest
observations given the very dry air down low.

For today, current band of very light rain showers continues to
push east. As mentioned before, little if any is hitting the
ground, and actually the biggest concern would be a brief period
of gusty winds with the rain evaporating. Frontal boundary will
continue its eastward track, with winds continuing to increase
in its wake. By this afternoon, forecast soundings over the area
are indicating very deep mixing. This will result in gusty
winds, strongest over western locations where gusts to 50 mph
will be possible. Gust to 45 mph expected over most remaining
locations. The exception may be far north central North Dakota
near the Turtle Mountains where deep mixing is noted, but winds
aloft are not as impressive.

Upper low tracks east over Manitoba bringing the next chances
for showers (generally 30 to 50 percent) primarily to northern
portions of the area. With that said, any showers should remain
quite light and main concern with some will be enhanced winds.
Further south where skies are expected to be clearer, low
humidity values are expected. This will combine with the gusty
winds to bring critical fire weather conditions primarily to the
southern half of our area.

Tonight shower chances will gradually push east. Winds will
decrease but still remain quite breezy, mainly over southern and
eastern areas later tonight as the surface low shifts over
Lake Superior.

Tuesday will see quiet weather as upper ridge over the western
CONUS shifts easterly. Southern and eastern parts of the area
will start out the day a bit windy, but a downward trend through
the day is expected with the departing surface low. Quiet
weather remains into Wednesday.

Ridge pushes east on Thursday, with a persistent active southwesterly
flow pattern setting up for the end of the work week into the
weekend. This will bring daily shower chances, along with some
thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 643 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Light rain showers will continue to move through south central
North Dakota into the James River Valley this morning as a cold
front moves east. Brief very gusty winds will be possible with
these showers given the dry lower atmosphere, possibly gusting
over 40 kts, which may affect the KJMS terminal. Winds will
shift westerly as the front moves through, and will be on the
increase this morning, with gusts to 50 mph by mid day into the
afternoon. Additional scattered rain showers, and possibly a
thunderstorm, will be possible mainly over northern areas
Monday afternoon and evening, possibly affecting the KXWA and
KMOT terminals. Ceilings will lower over these northern areas
this evening, possibly dipping to MVFR levels. The lower
ceilings will continue to shift south overnight affecting KDIK,
KBIS, and KJMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 355 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Winds will become west to northwest this morning, increasing to
25 to 35 mph with gusts to 50 mph over much of the area by this
afternoon. The strongest winds will be over western portions of
the area. The lowest humidity values in the mid teens to mid 20s
are expected to be mainly along and south of Highway 200, or
over southwest and south central North Dakota into the James
River Valley. Given the strong winds and low humidity values,
critical fire weather conditions are anticipated, and Red Flag
Waring has been issued for the aforementioned areas.

There is a 20 to 50 percent chance of rain showers mainly north
of Interstate 94 this afternoon. With that said, most of these
showers are expected to be quite light with only about a 10 to 20
percent chance of a tenth of an inch or more. A concern at this
point is virga or a very light shower passing through with dry
air down low, which could lead to erratic wind gusts.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for
NDZ001>003-009>012-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for
NDZ017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

UPDATE...Anglin
DISCUSSION...JJS
AVIATION...JJS
FIRE WEATHER...JJS