Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
000
FXUS64 KBMX 171045
AFDBMX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
545 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT SUN MAR 17 2024
It`s around 3 AM currently and we have a small, convective
perturbation moving east across Central Alabama. Timing was an hour
or so ahead of 00z CAMs and is close to the HRW FV3 and HRW NSSL
models in terms of progression. This batch of showers also features
a few rumbles of thunder across its southern portion. I expect this
system to scoot east this morning, and should slowly
weaken/disorganize as it moves toward Georgia. Flow aloft will
remain zonal, and we`ll probably see a bit of a lull in activity
this morning before additional rain showers enter the forecast area
from the west. Then, a subsequent shortwave perturbation should
enter the area by the early afternoon, positioning near the right
entrance region of the upper-level jet. PoPs remain very high for
areas south of I-20 where best 925-850 mb convergence will reside
along with best PWs (1.4-1.4"). Highest rain totals will remain
across the southern portions of the area as a result, generally one
half inch or less. Highs today will be in the 60s due to presence of
clouds and rain-cooled air. Some spots south of I-85 may approach 70
(Troy, Eufaula).
After the shortwave exits to our east tonight, a cold front will
move into Alabama from the north advecting cooler, drier air into
the region. Temperatures will cool into the upper 30s across the
north, with 40s elsewhere, by sunrise tomorrow morning. Northerly
winds will become northwesterly by tomorrow afternoon as an
upper-level trough the area. Despite some sunshine, afternoon
highs will only find the 50s/low 60s with a stout northwesterly
breeze. The stage will be set for a freeze tomorrow night.
40/Sizemore
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT SUN MAR 17 2024
A significant late season cold snap will occur Monday night through
Tuesday night. Lows Tuesday morning will range from the middle to
upper 20s along and north of the I-20 corridor to upper 20s and
lower 30s south of I-20. A freeze watch will be issued for all of
Central Alabama for Monday night and early Tuesday morning.
Temperatures will rebound nicely on Tuesday under mostly sunny skies
and light westerly surface winds, with highs in the upper 50s to
lower 60s. Another cold night Tuesday night but temperatures are
expected to remain above freezing. A warming trend Wednesday and
Thursday with highs climbing back into the 70s. The next upper level
impulse will approach the Mississippi River on Thursday. Some patchy
light rain possible across west Alabama on Thursday afternoon. The
models show strong convection moving across the northern Gulf of
Mexico and cutting off lift and instability over Central Alabama.
The models are also showing less coverage of rain and lowered rain
chances during the Thursday night and Friday time frame with no
mention of thunder. The rain should move out of Alabama Friday night
with dry conditions on Saturday.
58/rose
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 538 AM CDT SUN MAR 17 2024
A cluster of SHRA is currently moving across Central Alabama, and
this has impacted terminals with wet runways and brief MVFR vis
reductions due to rain. Cigs remain VFR, generally 050-090 with
light NW winds.
Additional SHRA is forecast today, mainly during the afternoon
hours. I cannot rule out a few -SHRA later this morning, as well
as some thunder near MGM (not enough confidence for TAF mention).
I`ve adjusted TAFs to reflect different timing of SHRA, but
improving weather conditions are forecast after ~00z.
By ~06z a cold front is forecast to move in across the northern
terminals causing a wind shift to northerly at 5-10 kts. FROPA
will hit southern terminals ~08-09z with VFR weather to finish the
period.
40/Sizemore
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Rain and a few rumbles of thunder is moving across Central Alabama
this morning. This little system will move off to the east by mid
morning, though additional rain chances move into the area this
afternoon. Best rain chances & amounts will be south of I-20.
A noticeably colder and drier airmass is expected behind a cold
front set to move into the area tonight. Winds will be of a
northerly to northwesterly direction tomorrow afternoon at 10-15
mph with gusts 20-25 mph. Minimum RH values will be 30-40%. Dry
air will remain through Wednesday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden 64 38 53 26 / 30 10 0 0
Anniston 62 40 54 28 / 50 20 0 0
Birmingham 62 40 54 30 / 40 10 0 0
Tuscaloosa 62 42 57 30 / 60 10 0 0
Calera 61 42 56 30 / 70 20 0 0
Auburn 63 45 58 32 / 90 30 0 0
Montgomery 64 46 60 31 / 90 20 0 0
Troy 68 48 62 32 / 100 40 0 0
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for
the following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Blount-Bullock-
Calhoun-Chambers-Cherokee-Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Dallas-
Elmore-Etowah-Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lee-Lowndes-
Macon-Marengo-Marion-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Pike-Randolph-
Russell-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa-
Walker-Winston.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...40/Sizemore
LONG TERM....58/rose
AVIATION...40/Sizemore