Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 161753
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1253 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT SAT MAR 16 2024

High pressure will be moving east today with skies expected to
slowly clear through the afternoon. Have adjusted highs a couple
of degrees cooler thanks to the lingering low level broken to
overcast layer over the state. Highs today will be in the upper
60s to mid 70s.

Tonight, a boundary will move through the south. High res models
are in good agreement of scattered light showers moving into
western Alabama around midnight and moving through areas north of
I20 through the early morning hours. Lows overnight tonight will
be in the upper 40s to upper 50s.

Around sunrise, the activity should increase in coverage and
intensity with more widespread heavier showers moving through
areas south of I20 through the rest of the day and into the
evening. Little to no instability is expected, though there is
plenty of lift and shear. PW values are near the 90th percentile
for this time of year. There could be a rumble of thunder in the
far southern counties in the afternoon, but otherwise, only
moderate to heavy rain is expected. By mid afternoon, there could
be lingering light drizzle in areas north of I20, but most of the
activity should be in the southern part of the state. Behind this
convection, winds will shift to out of the northwest with plenty
of cool air advecting. Highs on Sunday will be in the lower 60s
in the north. A few areas in the southeast may see temperatures in
the lower 70s before the rain and cloud cover cool the air in the
afternoon.

24

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT SAT MAR 16 2024

Sunday`s short wave trof will be exiting Alabama on Sunday and will
carry a small chance of showers Sunday evening for areas along and
south of Interstate 85. A robust upper trof will dig southward
across the eastern United States Monday and Tuesday with much colder
and drier air pushing southward towards the Gulf Coast. Widespread
sub-freezing temperatures expected Tuesday morning with lows ranging
from the middle to upper 20s north to lower 30s south. A freeze
watch/warning will likely be issued at some point this weekend.
Temperatures will warm considerably Wednesday and Thursday as the
upper flow becomes zonal and low level flow becomes westerly. The
next weather system will approach the Mississippi River on Thursday.
The air mass will remain relatively stable through Friday due to a
low level southeast flow, with mainly scattered showers Thursday
afternoon though Friday.

58/rose

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT SAT MAR 16 2024

Skies will be slow to clear through the rest of the afternoon with
VFR ceilings expected by the late afternoon. Overnight, a boundary
will move through the state with scattered showers expected around
midnight to move into western AL. Through the rest of the morning,
this activity should increase in coverage and intensity as it
spreads east and south. MVFR ceilings should prevail Sunday, with
pockets of showers and IFR ceilings moving through each TAF site.

24

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Fog and low clouds remain across the area this morning and will
continue through around 9 AM. Moister will remain somewhat
elevated with recent rains. 20 ft wind should prevail a westerly
direction this afternoon at 5-10 mph. Rain chances return tomorrow
with best coverage south of I-20. A noticeably colder, drier
airmass is expected across the area Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     48  63  36  53 /  20  40  10   0
Anniston    50  63  39  55 /  20  50  10   0
Birmingham  52  61  39  54 /  40  50  10   0
Tuscaloosa  53  63  41  57 /  60  60  10   0
Calera      54  62  41  56 /  40  60  10   0
Auburn      54  66  44  58 /   0  80  30   0
Montgomery  56  67  44  59 /  30  80  20   0
Troy        57  72  46  61 /  20  80  30   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....58
AVIATION...24


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