Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 121947
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
247 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 128 PM CDT TUE MAR 12 2024

A zonal flow prevailed aloft over the area early this Tuesday
afternoon while a shortwave disturbance was over the Southern and
Central Plains. Expansive surface high pressure was centered to
our southeast but remained the primary influence across the area.
Continued dry air in the low levels on the BMX 12.12z sounding was
keeping clouds in the mid to upper levels.

This afternoon.

Zonal flow aloft will persist with some mid to high clouds
approaching the area late this afternoon and continuing into the
overnight hours due a shortwave disturbance over the East-Central
Plains. Surface high pressure will remain to our southeast while
lower pressure will be located across the Northern and Central
Plains. Expect skies to range from mostly sunny east to partly
cloudy west. Winds will be from the southwest at 4-8 mph. Highs
will range from near 70 far northeast to readings in the low 70s
south and west.

Tonight.

The shortwave trough over the East-Central Plains will migrate
northeast, moving over the Mid-Mississippi River Valley Region
overnight. Surface high pressure will continue to become centered
closer to the Southeast Atlantic Coast as it maintains influence
across the area. As a result, dry conditions will persist despite
fair to partly cloudy skies with clouds in the mid to upper
levels. Winds will be light from the south at 2-4 mph. Lows will
range from the upper 30s in the normally colder valley locations
northeast to the mid 40s across portions of the south and west.

Wednesday.

Longwave ridging will temporarily build over the region and
extend northwest during the day Wednesday as mid-level troughing
deepens with time over the Intermountain West. Surface high
pressure will remain centered off the Southeast Atlantic Coast
while surface low pressure will organize and deepen across the
Central High Plains. Within the ridging aloft, a few weak
disturbances will ripple east in the fast zonal flow, resulting in
generally partly cloudy skies across the area with dry conditions
persisting. Winds will remain from the south from 4-8 mph. Highs
will range from the low 70s in the higher terrain northeast and
east to readings in the upper 70s west and far south.

05

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 150 PM CDT TUE MAR 12 2024

Thursday will be a transition day as the low level ridge begins to
break down and deeper Gulf moisture works into west Alabama. There
may be a few showers or thunderstorms across west Alabama Thursday
afternoon, with the bulk of the rain shifting to the northwest
counties Thursday night as the low level winds veer ahead of an
approaching cold front. The cold front will move into far
northwest Alabama Friday afternoon, with widespread showers and
embedded storms expected along and north of I-20. Rainfall may be
locally heavy at times, with localized flooding possible. The
rainfall intensity and overall areal coverage should diminish
Friday evening as the forcing associated with the short wave
trough moves east of Alabama. There will likely be a lull in the
rain activity late Friday night and into Saturday as drier mid
level air moves into Alabama in the wake of the exiting short wave
trough.

Shower and thunderstorm activity will pick back up late Saturday
night and into Sunday morning along a stalled out low level front.
This round of convection will impact mainly south Alabama, so it
will track south of the higher rainfall amounts that occurred with
the Friday system, with the flooding threat shifting into south
Alabama. The second wave is fairly progressive, and therefore
expected rainfall amounts have decreased. However, will maintain
a flooding threat as the southern counties received 2-4 inches of
rain with the storm system from this past weekend.

Severe threat still looks muddled on Friday. There will be sufficient
instability Friday afternoon for areas south of I-20 for a few
severe storms, but veering low level winds and weak mid level
lapse rates will hinder convective development.


58/rose

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT TUE MAR 12 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through this cycle. Expect some
increase in high clouds through the afternoon hours from the
southwest that will persist into the overnight hours and into the
day Wednesday. Dry conditions will continue with relatively light
low-level winds from the southwest through this cycle.

05

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Rain free conditions expected through Thursday morning. Max RH
values tonight 95-100 percent and Min RH on Wednesday 25-35
percent east of I-65 and 35-45 percent west of I-65. 20 foot
winds near calm tonight and south 4-6 mph on Wednesday. The next
chance of wetting rain will be Thursday afternoon and into Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     38  74  47  80 /   0   0   0  10
Anniston    41  75  49  81 /   0   0   0  10
Birmingham  44  75  53  80 /   0   0   0  10
Tuscaloosa  44  77  53  80 /   0   0   0  30
Calera      42  75  52  80 /   0   0   0  10
Auburn      44  73  50  80 /   0   0   0  10
Montgomery  41  74  50  81 /   0   0   0  10
Troy        42  76  50  81 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....58/rose
AVIATION...05


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