000
FXUS64 KBMX 190737
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
237 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 113 AM CDT FRI APR 19 2024

A surface low is currently moving towards the Ohio Valley and
dragging a cold front across the Lower MS River Valley. Convection
along the southern sections of the front is already beginning to
to dissipate and will continue to do so as it moves into even more
of an unfavorable environment dominated by the Gulf ridge and
lacking in deep moisture. Showers and a few storms may clip the
northern tier of Alabama through sunrise, but severe weather is
not expected. Yes there may be some gusty winds and lightning, but
most of the activity should remain under control.

Patchy fog appears likely this morning, especially in the south.
Will monitor trends to see if a Dense Fog Advisory is needed. The
frontal boundary will be near the I-20 corridor by the afternoon.
As temperatures warm into the lower to mid 80s, some isolated to
scattered thunderstorms will develop. Despite MUCAPE ranging from
2000-3000 J/kg along the surface boundary, thunderstorm growth is
expected to struggle through the dry air, limiting coverage,
intensity, and longevity, but gusty thunderstorm winds will be
possible in a few instances.

Scattered showers and storms will linger into the evening hours
due to the presence of a warm and unstable air mass south of the
cold front, but dissipate in coverage after Midnight. There could
be some light rain in the north, but very little measurable rain
is expected. A lull in the rain late Friday night through Saturday
morning as the air mass stabilizes north of the cold front. An
elevated warm front will bring scattered showers and a few
elevated storms to central Alabama Saturday afternoon.

16

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 222 AM CDT FRI APR 19 2024

Saturday night, scattered to widespread activity is expected to
move into the area from west to east through the rest of the night
and the early morning, thanks to a boundary remaining over the
area. Flow north of this boundary will be from the north, while
flow south of the boundary will be from the southwest.
Instabilities are very low across the state, and though shear
should be decent through the day, the greatest shear values will
be along and south of this boundary. The chance for thunder is
low with isolated thunderstorms possible, so included a slight
chance for thunderstorms in areas where the shear was higher.
Temperatures Sunday are expected to be much colder than normal
thanks to the overcast skies and northerly flow. By Sunday
evening, most rain should be east of the area with high pressure
approaching the state from the west. Northerly flow around this
high will prevail across the entire area, bringing drier and cool
air into Alabama beginning Sunday evening through the beginning of
the work week. Temperatures could drop up to ten degrees below
normal for this time of year Sunday night and Monday night.

Monday through Wednesday, high pressure will move across the
southeast with dry conditions and a gradual warming trend
expected. A low pressure system moves across the Great Lakes
region By Wednesday into Thursday. Models are trying to bring a
slight chance for rain to the area. Will include a slight chance
for rain in the far northern areas for now, and will keep an eye
on the system as it progresses.

24

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 112 AM CDT FRI APR 19 2024

Showers will be around central Alabama overnight, but chances
remain too low to include at terminals through sunrise.  The
terminals start off VFR with winds becoming light. Another bout
of MVFR/IFR ceilings will develop after 8/9z along with some
patchy fog. Even though there is some dry air aloft, the near
surface conditions are nearly saturated overnight. The ceilings
slowly rise and by 17/18z, VFR becomes established again. PROB30
was placed at all northern terminals for afternoon convection with
winds becoming west southwest 5-10kts.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A cold front will move into northwest Alabama Friday afternoon.
Scattered storms will develop along and ahead of the front. Min RH
values this afternoon will be 60-70% north of I-20 and 50-60%
south of I-20. 20 ft winds will be from the southwest 4-6 mph. Min
RH values Saturday afternoon will be 45-70%. 20 ft winds will be
from the southwest 4-6 mph. A wet pattern will continue through
Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     83  57  75  47 /  50  20  10  50
Anniston    83  59  76  51 /  40  30  20  50
Birmingham  83  59  74  50 /  40  30  20  60
Tuscaloosa  84  60  73  50 /  40  20  30  70
Calera      82  60  75  52 /  40  30  20  60
Auburn      84  65  81  57 /  20  20  30  50
Montgomery  86  64  81  56 /  20  20  30  50
Troy        87  64  84  58 /  20  10  40  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...16