743
FXUS65 KBOI 090302
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
902 PM MDT Wed May 8 2024

.DISCUSSION...A highly amplified pattern develops across the
west over the next couple days as a retrograding low moves
southwestward from the northern plains into Utah on Thursday
and an offshore ridge builds into the Pacific Northwest. SE
Oregon and SW Idaho will be generally dominated by the ridge,
resulting in dry and much warmer conditions. However, the low in
Utah will be close enough for a 15-30 percent chance of showers
in far s-central Idaho on Thursday. The windy conditions over
the last couple of days are not expected to return on Thursday,
but it will be breezy. No updates.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR with decreasing clouds. Sfc winds: W-N 10-20 kt
with gusts to 25 kt, diminishing to 5-15 kt by 06Z. Winds at
10k ft MSL: NE 10-20 kt.

KBOI...VFR with clear skies. Sfc winds: NW 10-15 kt with gusts
to 25 kt, diminishing to 10 kt or less by 04Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday night...Continuing through
Thursday, a persistent northeasterly flow aloft prevails across
the region, driven by an upper-level low situated over the
Northern Plains. This atmospheric setup maintains the potential
for isolated showers this afternoon in areas, including the
Boise Mountains, Upper Treasure Valley east of Mountain Home,
Western Magic Valley, and southern Twin Falls County. Elsewhere,
expect partly cloudy skies to persist into Thursday. Breezy
conditions will persist across the area until early evening,
particularly east of Boise from Mountain Home through Glenns
Ferry, with gusts reaching up to 40 MPH before diminishing by
sunset.

A gradual shift towards warmer and drier conditions is
anticipated as an upper-level ridge expands eastward into the
northern Rockies. However, the presence of a cut-off low over
the four-corners region inhibits the eastward movement of the
ridge over the Intermountain West, resulting in the warmest
temperatures remaining west of the divide. Thursday and Friday
are expected to feature mostly clear skies and lighter winds
across most of the forecast area, with the exception being
south-central Idaho on Thursday afternoon, where northeasterly
flow may trigger isolated showers in the Western Magic Valley
and Southern Twin Falls.

Temperatures are forecasted to rise to about 10 degrees above
today`s highs on Thursday, which is approximately 3 to 4 degrees
above normal. An additional 5 to 7 degrees of warming is
expected on Friday, with temperatures reaching the upper 70s in
the lower valley.

LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday...High confidence in
much warmer and drier conditions this weekend through the middle
of next week as an upper ridge builds across the Pacific
Northwest. High temperatures will be 5 to 15 degrees above
normal during this period, with many locations reaching the 80
degree mark Sunday and Monday. Dry conditions will also prevail,
with exception to weak instability developing on Sunday and
Monday leading to a very low chance (5-10%) of isolated
afternoon thunderstorms.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....BW
SHORT TERM...JDS
LONG TERM....JR