Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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000
FXUS65 KBOI 260901
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
301 AM MDT Tue Mar 26 2024

.SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday night...Northwesterly flow
aloft will continue to bring isolated snow and rain showers to
the region tonight through Wednesday morning. Temperatures will
be right around normal, with breezy afternoon winds in the
Snake River Valley making it feel slightly cooler today. The
best chance of showers will be over high terrain (50-60% chance)
with snow levels right around 4000 feet. A graupel shower is
possible in the Lower Treasure Valley tomorrow afternoon, with
weak instability allowing for brief periods of heavy
precipitation. Then, a ridge will build into the region,
bringing a brief period of warm and dry weather on Wednesday.

By late Wednesday, an upper level cut off low will advect
moisture and colder air into the region, with widespread
precipitation anticipated starting Wednesday night. There is
some debate on how much snow will fall in higher elevations
with this system Wednesday into Thursday. Colder air aloft
suggests higher snow level ratios than currently forecast, which
could allow for higher snowfall totals. This will depend on the
effect of lingering warm air from Wednesday on the snow level
ratios, and whether that will lower snowfall totals with
heavier, wetter, and more compact snow. High resolution guidance
favors the lower snowfall totals, with current snow levels
forecast to be around 3500-5000 feet. Snow accumulations by
Thursday at elevations above 6000 feet will be around 5-8
inches, with elevations above ~5000 feet seeing a wet 1-3
inches. Rainfall totals in the lower elevation valleys will
likely be around a quarter to a third of an inch by Thursday
morning. This system will be pretty quick moving, which will
likely reduce the impacts of the winter weather.

.LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...There is still widespread agreement
on the track for the upper level low through the weekend.
Southwest upper level flow will keep temperatures near normal on
Friday with showers mainly over high terrain in Central Idaho
and near the Nevada border. The low will then dive to the
southwest, keeping us in weak upper level southwest flow, and
bringing the best chance of precipitation (40-50% chance) to the
Nevada border and southeast Oregon through Sunday. As this
trough digs and becomes positively tilted on Sunday night, there
is a better chance for some precipitation (50-60% chance) over
south central Idaho. Snow levels will be around 4500-6000 feet
through the long term period, with minor accumulations expected
through the weekend.

A tilted ridge will begin to fold over the region on Monday,
bringing mostly dry conditions and a warming trend to the region
during the beginning of the week. Temperatures will begin to
warm to above normal levels, with about a 5% chance we`ll reach
80F in the Lower Treasure Valley on Tuesday. Deterministic
models and cluster ensemble solutions agree on the evolution of
this storm track, with only slight variation in the location of high
terrain precipitation during the weekend.


&&

.AVIATION...Mostly VFR. Localized MVFR/IFR in scattered snow
and rain showers through this evening. Snow levels 3500-4500
feet. Mountains obscured in precipitation and low clouds. Low
confidence in patchy mountain valley fog early this morning.
Surface winds: W-NW 5-10 kt except W-NW 15-20 kt with gusts to
30 kt in the Magic Valley. Variable overnight in the W-Central
Mtns. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: NW 15-25 kt.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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SHORT TERM...SA
LONG TERM....SA
AVIATION.....SA


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