Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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137 FXUS61 KBOX 212331 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 731 PM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure remains in control through Tuesday bringing dry weather with moderating temperatures. Wet weather returns Wednesday into Thursday as low pressure moves through our region. Mainly dry weather follows on Friday before becoming dreary again next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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No major changes to the forecast this evening. Brought forecast back in line with observed trends. Previous Discussion... High pres builds in from the west tonight. Diminishing wind, dry air and light winds will result in good radiational cooling conditions and a chilly night. Lows will be mostly in the low/mid 30s with some upper 20s possible in the colder spots in the CT valley and interior eastern MA.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... High pres in control will result in clear skies and light winds which will allow seabreezes to develop in the afternoon. Highs will range from the upper 50s to lower 60s away from the immediate coast. Another chilly night Sunday night with good radiational cooling. Subfreezing temps likely in some of the colder locations. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... */ Highlights... - Warm up early next week, except where seabreezes develop Monday - Wet and breezy midweek - Perhaps a reprieve Friday - More showers possible Saturday 21/12Z guidance remained in rather good agreement with the overall synoptic pattern through Wednesday. Then typical timing and amplitude differences creep into the solutions. Prefer a consensus blend to smooth over the less predictable features for this time range. Expecting well defined mid level northern and southern stream features to phase over the central Appalachians about mid week. Guidance remained consistent with that idea from previous runs. It`s how the pattern evolves after this phasing where some questions remain, particularly with timing. In most cases, looking like a period of wet weather sometime Wednesday, and perhaps lingering into Thursday. Depending on timing, another front may pass through our region sometime Friday into Saturday. Temperature-wise, looking much closer to normal early next week. Seabreezes likely on Monday, so cooler towards the coasts. Below normal temperatures should return mid week, then remain near to below normal into next weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Short Term /through Sunday Night/...High confidence. VFR through the period. NW gusts to 20 kt diminishing by this evening. Lighter winds Sunday with coastal seabreezes developing Sunday afternoon. KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Moderate probability of a sea breeze Sunday afternoon. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...High confidence. Monday through Tuesday: VFR. Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance RA. Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Breezy. RA likely. Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Breezy. Chance RA. Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance RA, slight chance SHRA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Short Term /through Sunday Night/...High confidence. Light winds and seas. Winds turning onshore near the coast Sunday afternoon as sea breezes develop. Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...High confidence. Monday through Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain. Wednesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Rain likely. Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain. Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain, slight chance of rain showers. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Belk/KJC NEAR TERM...Belk/KJC SHORT TERM...KJC LONG TERM...Belk AVIATION...Belk/KJC MARINE...Belk/KJC

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