Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 181406 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Taunton MA 1006 AM EDT Sun Mar 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Dry but unseasonably cold weather will continue through Monday. High pressure brings dry weather Tuesday. A coastal storm moves up from the Mid Atlantic coast Wednesday and then moves off to the east Thursday. High pressure brings drier weather Friday and early Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 10 AM Update... Overall trend in the forecast remains on track for today. Plenty of sunshine across southern New England, but with a cold start and CAA highs will stay well below normal. The only change was to increase wind gusts for late this morning into the afternoon. BUFKIT soundings show that mixing up to 850 mb will occur which could bring down near 20-25 kts. Thus went ahead and increased the wind gusts for today. Despite the sunshine, the cool temps and the wind will make it feel like temps in the mid to upper 20s. Previous discussion... WV imagery shows two very small and progressive waves which should pivot out of the N through the day today. However, the column remains mostly dry, suggesting these waves pass with little fanfare, in fact except for a few-sct clouds across the SW portions of the forecast area, conditions should remain SKC through the day. Initially, the combination of a cold start and slight cold advection leading to H85 temps dropping to near -15C by 18Z, should limit highs today in the upper 20s to low 30s across NW MA, and 30-40 across the E and CT valley where a slight downsloping motion should be realized. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... Overnight... Yet another H5 shortwave rotates out of Quebec during the evening hours, however bufkit shows the column remains dry. This suggests mainly SKC conditions continuing. However, the close passage of this wave, combined with a ridging nose from the NW will keep winds elevated a bit again overnight, limiting the radiational cooling. Min temps similar to this morning, mainly the upper single digits and low teens for the NW. Upper mid teens to low 20s closer to the coastlines. Mon... Although the longwave trof settled near Newfoundland and Labrador remains in place, sfc inverted ridging, tide to a 1020+ high pres in Quebec and Ontario will keep conditions quiet through Mon. Given the draw is from CP regions, mainly dry, mostly sunny conditions are expected through the day on Mon, with only a low risk for late increasing CI ahead of coastal low development well to the S late. Modest warm advection in the low-mid lvls. H85 temps average around -8C by late Mon. This should allow highs to be a bit warmer than Sun, ranging from the low 30s in the coldest spots, to the low 40s close to the E/SE coastlines. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Big Picture... Southern stream dominates the larger scale flow with several shortwaves embedded in the flow. One shortwave passes south of New England Tuesday. Earlier model packages indicated this as turning up the coast toward us, but now it remains weak and moves out to sea. A second shortwave moves to the East Coast Wednesday. Model solutions have converged on the Tuesday shortwave, but continue to have problems with the Wednesday-Thursday system. The ECMWF and GFS show similar surface patterns, with a center track 120 miles outside the benchmark, while the GGEM is much closer to shore. Ensemble solutions continue to offer varying solutions close and far off. We opted for a blend of the GFS ensemble and the ECMWF. Confidence is low-moderate. Details... Monday night-Tuesday... High pressure over Eastern Canada remains in control this period, with mainly clear skies and light winds Monday night, then increasing clouds Tuesday. It is possible that the Islands will see some light snow Tuesday, but most precipitation should remain offshore. Radiational cooling is favored Monday night, so we went a couple of degrees under guidance. Temps in the mixed layer Tuesday support max sfc temps in the 30s. Tuesday night through Thursday... As noted, models have given up on developing a coastal storm from the first shortwave, but agree on generating a coastal off North Carolina from a second shortwave Tuesday night/Wednesday. All models send this northeast, with the GFS and ECMWF tracking it outside the benchmark while the GGEM comes just inside. Past model uncertainty holds us back on increasing pops much, but we will indicate chance pops across RI and much of Eastern MA. The areal coverage is based on the 0.1 inch QPF on the GEFS ensembles. The storm passes the benchmark and moves off to the east Thursday morning, with any precipitation expected to diminish at that time. Friday-Saturday... Shortwave ridge builds over the region Friday, reflecting similar building by the sfc ridge over Northern Ontario. This ridge remains in place through Saturday morning. An ill-defined shortwave races east across the country, approaching New England on Saturday. Models show different timing, with the GFS fastest, GGEM slowest. They suggest timing for either late Saturday or Saturday night, with temperature profiles supporting snow. We will show a chance of snow Saturday night but with low confidence. && .AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Short Term /through Monday/...High confidence. Today through evening... VFR. Clear skies favored, but possible FEW-SCT CU mainly 040-060 across SW MA/CT this afternoon-evening. Winds mainly N-NW gusts to around 20 kt occasionally this afternoon. Tonight into Mon... VFR. NW winds generally lighter than previous days, mainly around 10 kt. KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/... Monday Night: VFR. Tuesday: VFR. Breezy. Tuesday Night: VFR, with MVFR developing after midnight. Windy with gusts to 35 kt. Wednesday: MVFR. Windy with gusts to 35 kt. Chance RA/SN. Wednesday Night: MVFR. Windy with gusts to 35 kt. Chance SN. Thursday: MVFR. Windy with gusts to 35 kt. Chance of SN eastern MA early. && .MARINE... Short Term /through Monday/...High confidence. Today and tonight... Early day conditions are quiet across the waters. However, by late afternoon and into the overnight winds will once again increase out of the NW reaching around 25 kt and allowing wind waves to reach 5 ft on the ocean waters. A new round of Small Craft Advisories will be issued. Mon... Winds/seas should diminish early, allowing small craft conditions to subside through the day. Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/... Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of snow. Areas of visibility 1 to 3 nm. Tuesday Night: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Local rough seas. Slight chance of rain, slight chance of snow. Areas of visibility 1 to 3 nm. Wednesday: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Rough seas up to 13 ft. Chance of rain, slight chance of snow. Areas of visibility 1 to 3 nm. Wednesday Night: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Rough seas up to 18 ft. Chance of snow, chance of rain. Visibility 1 to 3 nm. Thursday: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up to 18 ft. Chance of snow, slight chance of rain. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT Monday for ANZ232>235-237-255-256. Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 8 AM EDT Monday for ANZ231-251. Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM EDT Monday for ANZ250-254. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WTB/Doody NEAR TERM...Doody/Dunten SHORT TERM...Doody LONG TERM...WTB AVIATION...WTB/Doody MARINE...WTB/Doody is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.