Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

Current Version |  Previous Version |  Text Only |  Print | Product List |  Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
438 FXUS64 KBRO 141929 AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 229 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
(Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 226 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024 A pleasant and warm afternoon is in store for Deep South Texas in wake of yesterday afternoon and evening`s thunderstorms. The arrival of drier air will allow for plentiful sunshine this afternoon as skies remain mostly clear of cloud cover, and result in afternoon high temperatures ranging from the 80s along the Lower Texas beaches to around 100 degrees across the Rio Grande Plains. Winds will continue to gradually shift to the east and southeast through late this evening, with speeds falling below 5-10 mph tonight. The combination of clear skies, light winds, and recent rainfall will result in patchy fog developing once again closer to sunrise on Wednesday. Otherwise, low temperatures tonight will range from the upper 60s across the Northern Ranchlands to mid 70s across the Rio Grande VAlley. Another warm day is expected on Wednesday, but the return of southeast winds will allow for the return of slightly higher dew points. High temperatures will once again range from the 80s along the Lower Texas beaches to upper 90s across the Rio Grande Plains. In combination with the higher humidity, "feels like" temperatures will climb into the triple digits for portions of the Rio Grande Valley, ranging from around 100-106 degrees. Low clouds will develop Wednesday night as low level southerly to southeasterly flow transports Gulf moisture. This will keep low temperatures a few degrees warmer, mostly in the mid 70s to around 80 degrees region wide.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
(Thursday through next Tuesday) Issued at 226 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Hot conditions are expecting again Thursday as southeasterly surface winds continue to advect warmer air and moisture to the region. Heat index values are forecast to reach 111-114 across the eastern half of the CWA, likely requiring a Heat Advisory Thursday afternoon. An upper level trough looks to move across Texas on Friday, supporting a weak cold front that will bring a slight drop in temperatures and dewpoints, limiting the risk for additional heat advisories over the weekend. Additionally, there is a slight chance (15-20%) for showers and thunderstorms ahead of the cold front Friday. An upper level ridge looks to build into the Central US Sunday, persisting through the remainder of the period. Broad subsidence and southeasterly surface flow will support clearer skies and warming temperatures for the Start of the week.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024 VFR will prevail through the forecast period at all TAF sites with clear skies to FEW/SCT cloud cover. However, there will be a brief period of MVFR visibility possible between 11-13Z Wednesday morning as patchy fog develops. Otherwise, winds will continue to slowly shift to the east and southeast this afternoon with speeds generally around 10-12 knots. Wind speeds will fall below 10 knots overnight, and increase to around 10 knots by mid morning on Wednesday. && .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 226 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Tonight through Wednesday night...Light to moderate east to southeast winds and low to moderate seas will prevail across the Gulf waters and the Laguna Madre. Patchy fog may develop each night over the Gulf waters. Thursday through next Tuesday...A passing upper-level shortwave looks to enhance a surface low pressure system over Northern Mexico on Thursday. This will enhance briefly enhance pressure gradients along the coast Thursday afternoon, leading to higher wind speeds over the Laguna Madre and coastal Gulf waters, possibly requiring a Small Craft Should Exercise Caution headline. High pressure over the northern Gulf looks to support light to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas through the remainder of the period.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
-- Changed Discussion --
BROWNSVILLE 73 91 80 94 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 70 92 77 97 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 73 95 80 99 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 70 96 78 100 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 77 84 80 86 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 73 88 78 92 / 0 0 0 0
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...22-Garcia LONG TERM....60-BE AVIATION...22