Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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526 FXUS64 KBRO 121150 AAA AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 634 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 421 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 The 500 mb shortwave that generated some convection across Deep South Texas last night continues to move farther eastward this morning. Will continue to mention some low rain chances across the coastal waters for this morning. Otherwise, temperatures will continue to warm through the period. High temperatures today will reach into the mid to upper 90s, except for the low to mid 80s at the beaches. Warmer temperatures combined with a slight increase in humidity will allow heat index values this afternoon to reach the triple digits. Low temperatures tonight are expected to be warm, staying in the mid to upper 70s to around 80 degrees at the beaches. Monday will be very to hot as a dryline approaches from the west. Highs on Monday are expected to range from the 80s near the coast to the triple digits across the Rio Grande Plains. In addition, the much warmer temperatures and a slight increase in humidity will allow heat index values to climb to between 105 to 110 degrees, especially along and east of the I- 69C/US 281 corridor, Monday afternoon. A Heat Advisory may be needed for portions of Deep South Texas Monday afternoon. The NBM temperatures seemed a little too warm so, went with a blend of the NBM and CONSShort. Rain chances are expected to remain low through the period, with most areas staying between 10 to 20 percent. The Storm Prediction Center /SPC/ has all of Deep South Texas in a general thunderstorm risk for today and tonight and a marginal risk for the entire area for Monday. Finally, continued slightly elevated seas will result in a Moderate Risk of rip currents at the local beaches through Monday. && .LONG TERM... (Monday Night through Saturday) Issued at 421 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 A weak cold front is forecast to intrude into the BRO CWFA Monday night into Tuesday, with another weak cold front expected towards the end of the long term forecast period. When combined with a series of disturbances riding within a west-southwest to east- northeast 500 mb flow, isolated to scattered convection will result, generally in the Tuesday through Thursday time frame, with the best chance of precipitation progged for Wednesday. Above normal daytime highs and overnight lows are also anticipated, and highs on Thursday may require a Heat Advisory for portions of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. && .AVIATION...
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(12Z TAFS) Issued at 629 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Light east winds and generally VFR conditions prevail across Deep South Texas early this morning. Mainly VFR conditions are expected this morning into the afternoon. However, some brief MVFR conditions may be possible at times due to some passing low stratus and patchy hazy. Otherwise, light southeast winds this morning will become moderate to gusty later this morning into the afternoon. MVFR ceilings are expected to return late this evening.
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&& .MARINE... (Today through Monday) Issued at 421 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Light to moderate southeasterly winds and low to moderate seas are expected through the period. A slightly enhanced pressure gradient will support stronger winds over the Laguna Madre and Nearshore Gulf waters today. Therefore, Operators of Small Craft Should Exercise Caution this afternoon on the Laguna Madre and the nearshore Gulf Waters. (Monday Night through Saturday) Although a couple of weak cold fronts may affect the western Gulf of Mexico during the period, high pressure will generally prevail. Light to moderate winds and generally moderate seas will occur, but the strength of the winds may require a periodic Small Craft Should Exercise Caution, especially on Friday and Saturday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 91 79 93 78 / 10 20 20 10 HARLINGEN 94 77 96 76 / 10 20 20 10 MCALLEN 97 78 98 78 / 0 20 20 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 98 77 101 76 / 0 20 10 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 84 79 85 79 / 10 20 20 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 89 77 91 77 / 10 20 20 10 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...63-KC LONG TERM....66-Tomaselli AVIATION...63-KC