Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000 FXUS64 KBRO 252317 AAB AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 617 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 238 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 The latest radar and satellite imagery depicts rain-free conditions and partly to mostly sunny skies across all of Deep South Texas this afternoon. A Pacific cold front will continue to usher in a drier airmass as it sweeps across the region through the afternoon, but afternoon temperatures will still be above-normal this afternoon with highs warming into the upper 80s to low 90s. Dew points across the Rio Grande Plains have fallen into the 40s this afternoon, with a gradual decrease from the low 70s into the 50s and 60s expected across the Rio Grande Valley over the next several hours. Despite north to northwest winds prevailing this afternoon in wake of the frontal passage, a brief wind shift to the east along the Lower Texas coastal counties will exist as the sea breeze moves inland. The combination of low relative humidity, breezy northwest winds, and warm afternoon temperatures across portions of the Northern Ranchlands and Upper RGV will yield elevated fire weather concerns through this evening. A Rangeland Fire Statement is in effect through 8PM this evening for Zapata, Jim Hogg, Brooks, and Starr counties. Wind speeds will subside late this afternoon and evening as the pressure gradient weakens, with speeds falling below 10 mph tonight. Although noticeably cooler day time temperatures are not expected with the frontal passage, overnight low temperatures tonight will fall into the 50s and low 60s. Temperatures will be closer to seasonal normals tomorrow with highs warming into the low to mid 80s region wide. Winds will gradually shift from the northwest to east through tomorrow night, generally around or below 10 mph. A similar cool night is expected tomorrow night as low temperatures fall into the 50s and low 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Monday) Issued at 238 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 The long term forecast period will consist of a departing mid-upper trough and a building H500 ridge over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. Near the surface, a surface high pressure system will maintain its influence over the region. In terms of sensible weather here, this pattern will yield a dry and tranquil weather pattern with warming temperatures especially over the weekend into the early parts of next week. Temperatures will be near normal through Saturday (cooler near the coast thanks to prevailing easterly winds off the Gulf Waters) with highs in the low to mid 80s. However, 90s will begin to creep back into our western areas on Saturday. By Sunday, a strengthened ridge will be in place over the area with the ridge axis just to our east. Highs on Sunday will be in the mid 80s to mid 90s (warmest west, coolest near east or near the coast). By Monday (April 1), high temperatures are forecast to be in the 90s with upper 90s to near 100F degrees over our western areas. It will remain cooler near the coast with continued onshore flow. && .AVIATION...
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(00Z TAFS) Issued at 615 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 A weak cold front has moved through the region with moderate north winds to diminish after sunset. As for flight conditions VFR prevails at all regional airports for the next 24 hours.
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&& .MARINE...
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Issued at 431 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 A Small Craft Advisory has been reissued for the far offshore waters (20-60 nm) east of Padre Island due to high seas/swells. Exercise caution for the near shore waters (0-20 nm). Gulf of Mexico buoys 42019 and 42002 respectively reporting Significant Wave heights of 8-10 feet at 9 seconds. These waves/swells are from ongoing Gale conditions over the north central Gulf of Mexico. These waves will continue to be directed towards the lower Texas coast through Tuesday. The swell is expected to slowly subside and possible mix out with a light to moderate north winds spreading across the Western Gulf in wake of a weak cold front.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 61 82 59 82 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 57 83 56 83 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 58 84 56 84 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 55 82 52 82 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 65 73 65 74 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 59 79 61 78 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday morning for TXZ451-454-455. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ170-175. && $$ SHORT TERM...22-Garcia LONG TERM....23-Evbuoma AVIATION...59-GB

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