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000
FXUS64 KBRO 152321 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
621 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Key Points:

* A Wind Advisory remains in effect till 8 PM CDT tonight as an
  enhanced low level jet and tightened pressure gradient are
  resulting in strong southeasterly winds of 20 to 25 mph with gusts
  up to 40 mph.

* A Rip Current Statement remains in effect through Tuesday evening
  due to dangerous rip currents resulting from enhanced winds and
  elevated seas.

Throughout the short term, the region will remain within a zonal
upper level flow of a subtropical ridge aloft and a southwesterly
flow at mid-levels as a 500 mb high pressure remains, overall,
stationary over the southwestern portion of the Gulf of Mexico. At
lower levels, a low level jet (LLJ) will continue to increase
throughout the evening, peak overnight and then gradually weaken as
it moves offshore late tonight and through tomorrow morning.

At the surface, strong and gusty south-southeasterly winds,
resulting from winds being brought down from the LLJ, via boundary
layer mixing heights and a tightened pressure gradient, will
continue this afternoon and into the evening. A Wind Advisory
remains in effect for southern Hidalgo, Cameron, Willacy and Kenedy
Counties through 8 PM CDT tonight for strong southeasterly winds of
20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph. As mixing heights lower later
this evening, winds will ease slightly, but will continue to be
windy and gusty through tonight as the pressure gradient remains
tightened. Overnight lows will be in the lower 70s with mid 70s over
the Rio Grande Plains, RGV and coastal areas.

Late tonight and through sunrise tomorrow, the LLJ will begin
transitioning offshore to the northeast and begin to weaken through
the day tomorrow. However, winds are expected to continue to be
gusty through at least midday tomorrow, particularly over the middle
and lower RGV as rising mixing heights mix down enhanced LLJ winds
as the LLJ departs. Following, winds will diminish for much of the
CWA by midday, though still remaining breezy closer to the coast,
and temperatures will soar into the low to mid 90s across Deep South
Texas with upper 90s across the Rio Grande Plains and 80s across
coastal areas.

Tomorrow night, southeasterly winds will be generally light across
the CWA and overnight temperatures will be nearly the same as
tonight, but with mid 70s extending into the southern Ranchlands.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

The long-term does not have that much to offer until next weekend
when convection trends increase with the approach of cold front.
In the meantime, a general W-SW flow aloft with a few embedded
disturbances may provide isolated convection chances midweek
favoring the western third of the County Warning Area (CWA).
Expect a seasonal weather regime with modest southerly flow
maintaining near to slightly above normal temperatures and average
moisture values. Models continue to show a weakening upper trough
approaching NE Mexico Wednesday night and passing over South
Texas Thursday. Modest instability and moisture depth may allow
for isolated convection over the western counties during this time
period. Models do not indicate any sea breeze activity at this
time but with GFS moisture depth increasing can not rule out an
isolated shower or two along the seabreeze boundary during peak
heating hours each afternoon with chances only 5-10%.

Latest model trends are pinpointing next Saturday and/or Sunday with
a better chance of convection especially with a cold front
approaching Saturday night and potentially moving through Sunday.
It`s a long way out, but with cape values exceeding 1500 j/kg,
increasing lapse rates and a cold front in the vicinity some
convection could be strong.  Otherwise, temperatures stay above
normal Friday and Saturday before showing a downward trend next
Sunday and Monday as the front traverses the CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 617 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Southeasterly winds will continue to be breezy through tonight
across all aerodromes. Wind gusts will continue to between 25 and
kts through the overnight hours. VFR conditions will fall to MVFR
(already has at BRO) this evening and overnight. Will likely see
some wavering this evening between MVFR and VFR, especially at
BRO and HRL. VFR conditions will return to MFE early Tuesday
morning, and by midday at HRL and BRO.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 218 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Tonight through Tuesday night...A Small Craft Advisory remains in
effect for the Laguna Madre till 8 PM CDT tonight as boundary layer
mixing heights continue to mix down strong winds from an enhanced
low level jet within a tightened pressure gradient, resulting in
strong and gusty southeasterly winds and adverse marine conditions.
Small Craft Advisories continue till noon CDT Tuesday for the
nearshore (0-20 nm) and offshore (20-60 nm) Gulf Waters as the
effects from the tightened pressure gradient and departing low level
jet persist. Gradual improvement is expected tomorrow afternoon and
tomorrow night as winds diminish and seas gradually lower.

(Wednesday through Monday): Latest model projections show
a moderate pressure gradient for the Western Gulf of Mexico and the
lower Texas coast for the middle and half of the week. The pressure
gradient between surface ridge over the Gulf and low pressure over
the Central and Northern Plains to maintain a moderate southerly
Wednesday and Thursday. A cold front is shown to move over Central
Texas Friday slowing its forward progress settling over Southcentral
Texas Saturday and potentially moving offshore the lower Texas coast
Sunday. Southeast winds veer east and weaken Friday and Saturday
with north winds increasing as the front moves south sometime
Sunday. The cold front may bring about an increase chance of
thunderstorms next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             74  89  74  87 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN               73  91  72  91 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN                 75  95  75  94 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         74  97  74  95 /  10   0   0  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      74  80  73  79 /   0   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     72  88  71  86 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ251-253>255-351-
     354-355.

     High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for TXZ451-454-455.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for GMZ130-132-
     135.

     Small Craft Advisory until noon CDT Tuesday for GMZ150-155-170-
     175.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....59
AVIATION...68