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165
FXUS64 KBRO 111739 AAB
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1239 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

The most recent surface analysis indicates a stationary front
draped across northeast Mexico and south of the BRO CWFA. This
front is progged to retreat north as a warm front during the
period, while a series of weak mid-level disturbances ride
overhead within a west-southwest to east-northeast 500 mb flow.
This will result in isolated convection, with the best chance of
showers and thunderstorms occurring today.

Meanwhile, warming temperatures, featuring slightly above normal to
above normal daytime highs and overnight lows, will occur as the
warm front sweeps north through Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande
Valley. However, values will still be well below normal what was
observed during the daylight hours of Thursday, when record highs
were recorded at all three official climate sites (BRO, HRL, MFE).

Finally, continued slightly elevated seas will result in a Moderate
Risk of rip currents at the local beaches through the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

A nearly zonal flow aloft with a series of embedded impulses will
support low rain chances through Thursday. At the surface, steady
onshore flow will lead to warming temperatures and humid conditions
through the week. Lows temperatures Sunday night will be in the mid
to upper 70s. Very warm to hot temperatures are expected for Monday
with triple digits returning into the Rio Grande Plains. Another
weak cold front will sag into the region on Tuesday, then is
expected to stall along the Rio Grande River. Wednesday into
Thursday this frontal boundary retreats northward as a warm front.
Another weak cold front arrives on Friday, then stalls across the
area by Friday night. Temperatures Tuesday through Friday should
remain generally in the 90s with a few spots along the border
reaching 100 degrees. Overnight lows will continue remain in the
70s.

Weak overrunning, a few impulses moving overhead and onshore flow
will keep chances of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast
Sunday night through Thursday. The best rain chances should remain
across the Rio Grande Plains and the northern ranchlands. The Storm
Prediction Center has all of Deep South Texas in a general
thunderstorm risk for Sunday night and a marginal risk for
the entire area Monday and Monday night.

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

VFR conditions are expected this afternoon with MVFR conditions
returning as ceilings drop overnight. Light to moderate
southeasterly winds look to continue through the period.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 249 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Today through Sunday: A stationary front located south of the
lower Texas coastal waters will gradually retreat north as a warm
front during the period, leaving behind a slightly enhanced
surface pressure gradient. Light to moderate winds and low to
moderate seas will prevail along the Lower Texas Coast through the
weekend. However, the strength of the wind may be enough to
require Small Craft Should Exercise Caution on Sunday, especially
for the Laguna Madre and possibly for the Gulf of Mexico waters
from 0 to 20 nautical miles offshore.

Sunday night through Friday...Moderate winds and seas of
generally 3 to 5 feet will prevail through much of the period.
Brief periods of Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions will be
possible, mainly on Wednesday into Wednesday night, due to
elevated winds and seas. Showers and thunderstorms will also be
possible at times Sunday night into Monday, and again mid to late
week which could locally enhance winds and seas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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BROWNSVILLE             91  78  91  79 /  10  10  20  10
HARLINGEN               93  75  94  76 /  20  10  10  10
MCALLEN                 96  77  96  78 /  20  10  10  20
RIO GRANDE CITY         94  76  96  76 /  20  10   0  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      83  79  84  79 /  10  20  20  20
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     88  77  90  77 /  10  10  10  10
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&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
TX...None.
GM...None.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...66
LONG TERM....63
AVIATION...60-BE