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829
FXUS64 KBRO 140938
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
438 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
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(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

The latest surface analysis depicts a weak cold from near Rio
Grande City extending eastward to Edinburg to Harlingen then off
the Lower Texas Coast. Temperatures range from the mid to upper
60s across the northern ranchlands to the lower 70s across the Rio
Grande Valley with light north to northwest winds. The moist
soils from very recent rainfall combined with light winds may lead
to patchy fog across the area, especially across the northern
ranchlands and the Lower Valley. The frontal boundary is expected
to continue to push south of the Rio Grande River later this
morning. Highs today will range from the lower 80s at the beaches,
low to mid 90s across the Rio Grande Valley and the upper 90s to
around 100 degrees across the Rio Grande Plains. Will lean towards
a blend of the NBM/CONSShort for temperatures and dewpoints for
today, as the NBM appears a little too warm. Light to moderate
north to northeast winds will prevail today. Skies will become
mostly cloudy tonight with lows falling into the 70s, a few
locations could drop into the 60s across the northern ranchlands.
In addition, patchy fog is possible again tonight, mainly across
portions of the Brush Country. Southeast winds are expected to
return on Wednesday which will provide for another warm day. Highs
on Wednesday will generally be in the 90s, except for the 80s
near the coast. Heat indices will range from 102 to 108, mainly
across the Rio Grande Valley.

Finally, continued slightly elevated seas will result in a Moderate
Risk of rip currents at the local beaches through Wednesday.
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&&

.LONG TERM...
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(Wednesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

A weak cold front is forecast to intrude into the BRO CWFA on
Friday. This will produce a shot of isolated showers/thunderstorms
at that time, while the remainder of the long term period remains
generally dry.

Of greater concern will be the return of above normal daytime high
temperatures. When combined with relative humidity percentages, a
Heat Advisory may be needed for portions of Deep South Texas and
the Rio Grande Valley on Thursday. Afterwards, an influx of dry
air in the wake of the aforementioned cold front will produce heat
index values approaching, but not meeting or exceeding, established
Heat Advisory criteria.
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&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1244 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Mostly clear skies with light and variable winds prevail across
Deep South Texas early this morning. Latest satellite imagery
shows some low level stratus starting to develop north of HRL.
Some low cloud decks are expected to develop and spread across the
area overnight leading to MVFR ceilings, especially after 09Z.
Also, ground moisture from earlier convection combined with very
light winds may allow patchy fog to develop. Will continue to
mention a TEMPO for lower visibilities between 12 to 14Z at BRO
and HRL. Low clouds and any fog should mix out later this morning
with VFR conditions returning mid to late morning. Very light
winds early this morning will increase and become northeasterly to
easterly through the day.

&&

.MARINE...
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(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

A weak pressure field across the Western Gulf will provide light
to moderate winds and low to moderate seas along the Lower Texas
Coast. Northeasterly winds today will become easterly tonight and
southeasterly on Wednesday as high pressure moves eastward across
the northern Gulf.

(Wednesday Night through Monday)
Although a weak cold front will intrude into the western Gulf of
Mexico on Friday, high pressure will be the dominant feature
along the Lower Texas Coast. Generally moderate winds and seas
will prevail, and Small Craft Exercise Caution and Small Craft
Advisory are not anticipated to be needed during the period.
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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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BROWNSVILLE             92  74  91  80 /  10   0  10   0
HARLINGEN               94  71  93  77 /  10   0   0   0
MCALLEN                 97  74  95  79 /  10   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         97  71  96  79 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      84  78  84  80 /  10   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     88  73  88  78 /  10   0   0   0
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&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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None.
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&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Caceres-63
LONG TERM/UPPER AIR...Tomaselli-66