Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 120455 AAB
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1155 PM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024

A weak mid-level trough continues to work through the Southern
Plains into tonight, maintaining southwesterly flow aloft and broken
to overcast cloud cover across Deep South Texas. A weak shortwave
arrives from the west Tuesday night, bringing in additional cloud
cover. The surface ridge of high pressure persists across the
Southeast US, keeping southeasterly onshore flow through the short
term period. Expect near normal temperatures again today, with a
little more humidity than the weekend. Near normal lows tonight lead
into slightly above normal highs on Tuesday.

For those heading to the beaches of South Padre Island, expect
enough sunshine to require sunblock, highs in the low 70s, and
overnight lows in the upper 60s with a chilly 2 to 3 foot surf.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024

The long-term weather forecast period will open up with a
continuation of dry and tranquil weather conditions with warm to
very warm temperatures and increased humidity levels. The
chances/risks for showers and thunderstorms increase over the
weekend and possibly into the early parts of next week. Confidence
still remains low at this time due to some spread/inconsistencies
amongst forecast models and uncertainties with regards to the
precise location of the jet stream, placement and strength of mid-
upper level disturbances riding overhead, amongst other variables.
Will continue to monitor trends in the days ahead and will
provide more information as we fine tune the more salient
details.

High temperatures Wednesday through Friday (ahead of an approaching
cold front) will range from the upper 80s to mid/upper 90s across
Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley with the warmest of
temperatures located across our western zones (i.e. Zapata, Starr,
and Jim Hogg Counties). South-southeast winds will not only
support warm air advection (WAA), but also an increase in
moisture advection and thus humidity levels with dewpoints progged
to be in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Temperatures will be cooler
along the coastal areas and South Padre Island (SPI) with the
Gulf Waters still being rather chilly. Highs are expected to be in
the 70s to low/mid 80s each day (Wednesday through Friday) along
the coastal areas. Influences of a departing high pressure system
will result in enough subsidence for dry and tranquil weather
Wednesday through Friday.

Friday night through Monday, the focus shifts towards the passage of
a cold front and the increased risks/chance for showers and
thunderstorms developing. Global deterministic forecast
models/ensembles continue to advertise an amplified H500 mid-upper
level pattern developing over the contiguous U.S. with an
anomalously strong ridge over the northeast Pacific into western
Canada and a resultant anomalously strong closed low downstream
over the Desert Southwest region. The latter could have
ramifications on the weather pattern over the southern U.S.
including over Deep South Texas, the Rio Grande Valley, and
the adjacent waters of the Gulf of Mexico as the low
enhances/amplifies the jet stream and spins off a couple of
shortwaves.

Forecast models continue to show a cold frontal boundary approaching
the forecast area over the weekend. There`s still some
differences in timing with the passage of the cold front, but
consensus indicates that the cold fropa should take place Saturday
night into Sunday which will bring notable and welcome cooler
changes to Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley Sunday and
Monday. High temperatures Sunday and Monday are forecast to be in
the 70s.

Coinciding with the passage of the cold front will be chances for
showers and thunderstorms within this window. Forecast models
continue to depict the aforementioned closed low over over the
Southwest U.S. causing a kink in the jet stream which will result
in a semi-zonal (potentially active) southwest flow aloft pattern
to develop. Tracking along the jet stream will be a few mid-upper
energies/impulses. Some of these impulses could be rather
vigorous helping to trigger the development of showers and
thunderstorms over the local forecast area. The first chance looks
to be Friday night into Saturday, with a couple of more chances
from Saturday night into Sunday and Sunday night into Monday. The
best chance within this time period looks to be Saturday night
through Sunday. Again, there`s quite a bit of uncertainty at this
time. That said, continue to have low grade PoPs (20-40%) over at
least parts of the local forecast area during this time period
(Friday night through Monday).

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024

VFR at the TAF sites. Light ESE winds. Satellite shows mid and
high clouds. Obs are picking up various low and mid clouds. Winds
will become moderate southeast today and will support VFR ceilings
at the TAF sites.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024

Now through Tuesday Night...High pressure works east maintaining
southeasterly onshore flow across the lower Texas coastal waters.
Expect seas of 2 to 3 feet, with a light to moderate chop during
afternoon hours on the bay. Brief small craft caution conditions are
possible Tuesday afternoon on the bay with the strongest gusts late
afternoon.

Wednesday through Monday....Marine conditions are favorable
Wednesday through Friday with low to moderate winds and seas. Low to
moderate seas will continue through Sunday, however, there is the
potential for showers and thunderstorms to develop Friday night
through Monday. Seas could become a bit more unfavorable on Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             76  63  80  68 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN               77  60  83  66 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN                 78  63  84  68 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         78  62  85  66 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      71  66  73  68 /   0   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     74  62  78  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54-BHM
LONG TERM....68-McGinnis
AVIATION...54-BHM


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