050
FXUS64 KBRO 050530 AAB
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1230 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

The main event continues to be the above normal temperatures for
Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. The high temperature
for tomorrow is expected to be mostly in the 90s for the area,
while parts along the coast and the beach will be in the upper
80s. While the overnight low temperatures for tonight and tomorrow
night are expected to be in the 70s. The overall light
southeasterly flow will allow for low-level moisture to move into
the region, that could help to produce some patch fog mostly in
the Northern Ranchlands and along the coast and beaches around
daybreak. A patchwork of low- level to upper-level clouds are
expected through the duration of the short term forecast period,
which may provide some relief from the warm temperatures.

Currently, SPC has the Northern Ranchlands in a general
thunderstorm outlook. While it is certainly possible that some
showers and thunderstorms could drift in from the north to the
region, they would be moving into an unfavorable environment as
the upper levels of the atmosphere are still very dry. As such,
rain chances have been left at isolated for the Northern
Ranchlands to account for any stray showers and thunderstorms
that make it into the area.

Meanwhile, at the beaches, moderate seas will continue to produce a
Moderate Risk of Rip Currents at the local beaches through Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Saturday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Heat will become more problematic in the long term. Temperatures
have been running around 5 degrees above average lately, but
differences from average Tuesday through Thursday could increase
to a positive 10 degrees. A dryline will set up shop to the west,
never really penetrating very far into the CWA, but at the same
time moderate to fresh southeast breezes will pump high dew point
(in the 70s) air inland, placing an upward stress on heat index
values.

The mid-level pattern will remain rather zonal most of the week,
but ridging will become more apparent heading into next weekend.
Weather systems will thus, for the most part, avoid this part of
the world through the week yielding a dry forecast. Partly to
mostly cloudy skies will generally prevail, with increased
sunshine taking over each afternoon. Marginal heat advisory
conditions could develop Tuesday, Wednesday, and again Thursday
afternoons for portions of the CWA.

Wildfire fuels are in transition (drying trend), but do not see
any obvious fire weather threat days just yet. Rip current risk
will likely remain at least moderate, given the wave height and
swell period forecast.

A cold front may push into the area next Friday ahead of the
building weekend ridge, and that could be enough to trigger
convection moving out of the Sierra Madre Orientals and into the
Upper Valley Friday evening to Friday night. The high pressure
building in behind the front may provide a temporary relief from
the heat.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Light to moderate southeast winds and widespread low stratus
prevail across Deep South Texas early this morning. MVFR
conditions are generally expected to continue through the next 24
hours with southeasterly winds. VFR ceilings may return at all
three aerodromes later this morning into the afternoon, with MVFR
a little more persistent at BRO and HRL. MVFR ceilings will return
again by later this evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 224 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Tonight through Sunday Night...Moderate southeasterly winds and
moderate seas are expected to persist along the Lower Texas Coast.
Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions are expected to occur
through the period.

Monday through Thursday night...Moderate to fresh southeast breezes
will prevail through the long term. With those winds will come
moderate to occasionally higher wave heights. Thus, expect here and
there small craft should exercise caution to low end small craft
advisory conditions. Synoptically, high pressure over the North Gulf
will interact with lower pressure upstream to maintain a gradient
supportive of moderate to fresh winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             76  90  77  92 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN               75  93  75  95 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN                 77  94  78  98 /  10   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         76  96  74  99 /  10   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      76  82  78  83 /   0   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     75  88  75  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...64-Katz
LONG TERM....54-BHM
AVIATION...63-KC