Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 220014 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
714 PM CDT Wed Mar 21 2018

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


.AVIATION...500 mb and surface ridging will prevail over the RGV
over the next 24 hours which will maintain pretty dry and stable
conditions. Accordingly, expect VFR conditions to prevail for all
3 RGV airports through tomorrow afternoon. The SE low level flow
will increase a bit tomorrow afternoon as the PGF tightens up
somewhat. Otherwise, no other serious aviation concerns expected
throughout tonight and tomorrow.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 212 PM CDT Wed Mar 21 2018/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night): 500mb ridge across
the western United States will amplify somewhat across the western
half of the country through the short term. At the surface...high
pressure across the east-central U.S. tonight will shift eastward
Thursday and the pressure gradient will increase across central
Texas as a result. Winds have increased across the Rio Grande
valley this afternoon and they will diminish tonight as the winds
decouple with the loss of diurnal heating. Temperatures tonight
will not be as cool as they were this morning as winds continue to
veer to the southeast. Expect warmer temperatures Thurs afternoon
than today as southeast winds increase across the CWA Thursday.
Lows Thurs night will also be warmer than tonight as surface moisture
continues to increase across the area.

LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday): The long term will start with
an upper level ridge spreading eastward over northern Mexico.
At the surface high pressure will continue to park itself over
northern and central Florida allowing for a strong southerly flow to
develop between the high pressure and lee side troughing to our
west. Strong southerly flow along with high heights as well as very
warm H85 temps through the weekend, we`ll see well above average
temperatures across much of Deep South Texas with some locations
inland hitting the upper 90s to near 100 degrees. Windy conditions
should develop each day, especially right along the coast. Some
gusts across the I69E corridor may reach wind advisory thresholds
for both Saturday and Sunday.

The upper level ridge will begin to slide eastward over the central
portions of the Gulf of Mexico by Monday. This will transition our
flow aloft to a more active southwesterly flow. Models have
dialed back rain chances a bit early next week. Globals are
showing ascent staying north of our CWFA and a surface stationary
frontal boundary setting up basically right along I35 corridor.
Kept some POPs in for the northern Ranchlands, but kept chances
low given the uncertainty within forecast guidance.

MARINE (Tonight through Thursday night): Seas were near 4 feet
with east winds near 14 knots at buoy020 early this afternoon.
Winds will veer to the southeast and increase across the offshore
waters tonight as surface high pressure across the western Gulf of
Mexico moves eastward and low pressure develops across west Texas
allowing the pressure gradient to increase across the lower Texas
coast. Will word SCEC for the offshore waters tonight as winds
increase to 15 to 20 knots. Moderate southeast winds will prevail
across the coastal waters Thursday with stronger winds offshore
the lower TX coast Thurs night as the pressure gradient remains
strong across the western Gulf. Will likely need SCEC wording for
the offshore waters Thurs night with seas approaching small craft
advisory levels in the far offshore waters.

Friday through Wednesday...Marine conditions will decline and
stay rather adverse through the long term period as surface flow
remains strong on the west side of the high pressure across
central Florida. Small craft Caution or Small Craft Advisories
will likely be needed for the Laguna Madre for winds and winds and
seas 0-60 nautical miles throughout the long term period.

FIRE WEATHER...Relative humidity values have fallen across the
middle and upper Rio Grande valley this afternoon and with east to
southeast winds 15 to 20 mph across the area...have issued a fire
danger statement for the western and central portions of the CWA
through the rest of the afternoon into early this evening.




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