Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 201444 AAA AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Burlington VT 1044 AM EDT Fri Apr 20 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Mountain snow showers will taper off to flurries through this evening as an upper level system slowly drifts east over the Canadian Maritimes. Temps will remain below normal through the weekend as a warming trend begins on Sunday. Coming out of the weekend we should see near normal to slightly above normal temperatures along with dry conditions and plentiful sunshine. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 1044 AM EDT Friday...Going forecast is on track so little change as unseasonably cold NW flow continues. Some of the main valley locations will get some downslope warming and see high temps reaching the lower to mid 40s while mid to upper 30s prevail in the higher terrain. Radar shows lighter returns now so not expecting a whole lot more accumulation and as daytime heating increases and flow becomes less blocked only the highest mountains will see any persistent activity as snow showers show a bit more convective character. Previous discussion....Upslope snow continues as radar reflectivities continue to light up on the western slopes. The upper level trough will continue to pull east over the Canadian maritimes and lead to upslope snow showers throughout the day today as the northwesterly flow remains in place. Moisture will become limited by mid day and the flow should become unblocked leading to the light snow showers becoming isolated should come to an end by the early evening hours. The airmass will still be a cold one as temps today struggle to reach the 40s across much of the North Country. 925mb temps remain below zero for most of the day with persistent cloud cover so I`ve got around 41-42F in the Champlain Valley and with mid to upper 30s in the Northeast Kingdom and the Adirondacks. Temps overnight remain near normal with lows this evening in the upper 20s to lower 30s. Even as the upper trough pulls east the ridge wont build in quite quick enough to see the warm air push into the North Country on Saturday. Skies will be clearing except for the Northeast Kingdom where cloud cover will hold on longer. 925mb temps support mid to upper 40s for highs except east of the Greens where the aforementioned cloud cover will lock in temps around 40. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 353 AM EDT Friday...Deep-layer ridge builds slowly ewd from the Great Lakes Saturday night, translating across the northeast CONUS Sunday night thru Monday. Broad mid-level subsidence expected to bring clearing skies Saturday night, and a long- awaited period of mostly clear conditions and moderating temperatures for Sunday and Monday. Winds will remain nwly on Sunday, perhaps reaching 10 mph or so during the mid-day hours with best PBL mixing. Looking at highs in the lower 50s in most locations. For Monday, low-level flow turns light S-SE as sfc ridge shifts south and east of New England. Should see valley temperatures reach the low 60s with continued sunshine and moderation of the air mass. PoPs NIL thru the period. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 353 AM EDT Friday...Should see deep-layer ridge hold on as our controlling weather feature during Monday night/Tuesday as it slowly departs ewd into the Gulf of Maine. Wide diurnal range expected with continued dry air mass in place. Low temperatures Monday night are generally expected in the 30s, with Tuesday`s highs reaching the low-mid 60s in valley locations (potentially our warmest day since the 69F reached at BTV on 2/21). Thereafter, anticipate some degree of phasing northern and southern stream shortwave troughs across the Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic region. The 00Z GFS and 00Z ECMWF - unsurprisingly for a potential phasing scenario - differ significantly on potential details Wed-Thu. The GFS suggests development of a slower, closed mid- level low across the Ohio Valley with an inland track of a surface low across our region Wednesday night into Thursday. The ECMWF suggest more of a coastal low, with potentially less rainfall, especially for nrn NY. ATTM, have indicated 40-50% PoPs for Wednesday, and 50-60% on Wednesday night based on a blend of solutions. Anticipate some lingering showers during the day Thursday. Abundant clouds and potential precipitation should bring slightly cooler temperatures, with highs mainly in the mid 50s for Wednesday and Thursday, and lows in the low-mid 40s. && .AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Through 12Z Saturday...Generally VFR to MVFR flight conditions will prevail with scattered mountain snow showers across the western slopes of the Greens and Adirondacks. Visibilities in the snow showers could drop to as low as 2SM but generally expect any the showers to have limited impact to TAF sites as any IFR is anticipated to only be brief. By mid afternoon expect the threat for precip to come to an end as flight conditions remain MVFR ceilings with VFR visibilities. Winds remain northwest in the 10 to 15 kt range with brief gusts up to 20kts. Outlook... Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Sisson NEAR TERM...Deal/Sisson SHORT TERM...Banacos LONG TERM...Banacos AVIATION...Deal

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