Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 170745 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 345 AM EDT Sat Mar 17 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure is in store this weekend, but seasonally cold weather and gusty winds will continue, especially on Saturday. Some scattered snow showers will be possible Saturday morning, mainly in the northern mountains which would be the only precipitation on an otherwise dry weekend. The jury is still out on a potential low pressure system that may have the makings of the fourth nor`easter that New England has seen in the last few weeks with current trends keeping the system largely south of the area for now.
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As of 343 AM EDT Saturday...While a most of the weekend will be dominated by high pressure, Saturday morning starts with strong upper shortwave trough that digs into the region at daybreak and moves quickly south of the CWA by mid afternoon. With this a very cold airmass for this time of year moves in with temperatures 10 to 15 degrees below normal. Along with this colder air a chance for snow showers to Saturday morning. While across the northern half of the CWA, SBCAPE of 100-150 J/kg look possible as indicated by 00z NAM-12km and model soundings suggest convective depths extending up close to 700mb with trough passage, QPF looks to be less than 0.15" and will limit widespread snow squall activity. Though some flurries or a quick snow shower is possible during the morning hours Saturday, especially across northern VT. A possible snow squall isn`t completely ruled out and will continued to monitored with any potential increased moisture coming out of Canada this morning. A strong jet will accompany the shortwave as well, and with decent mixing expect gusty winds will continue much the day Saturday. Drier air works in Saturday afternoon, bringing the shower potential to an end and even allowing for some much missed sunshine by late in the day. However, with gusty winds and temperatures only in the teens and 20s, it will definitely be a cold day more reminiscent of January in spite of any sunshine. Skies will clear and winds lessen overnight Saturday night as high pressure builds across the region, and this combined with nice fresh snowpack will make for a very cold night indeed. Lows drop down into the single digits areawide, with negative numbers likely in the Northeast Kingdom and Adirondacks. Even with the winds decreasing, look for higher elevations to see wind chills in the negative teens. Cold temperatures and northerly flow and dry conditions will continue on Sunday with less cloud cover than Saturday. Look for high temperatures to be not much better than Saturday with the valleys only reaching the low 20s and other locations in the teens.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 331 PM EDT Friday...The weekend and the start of the work week will be relatively quiet as high pressure dominates the region. We`ll see some low level clouds mainly over the higher terrain with some breaks during both days. The main item of note will be the well below normal cold air that filters into the North Country. With 850 temps ranging from - 15C to -19C we`ll be bordering on 20 degrees colder than our normal highs for mid March with temps in the high teens to low 20s Sunday and Monday. Overnight temps will fall into the single digits as radiational cooling should be in full effect. Based on BufKit soundings I did boost the higher elevation temps during the overnight hours because the high peaks regions should be quite a bit warmer and drier above the low level subsidence inversions. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 331 PM EDT Friday...Coming out of the weekend we`ll see marginally warmer air move into the region from the northwest as high pressure pushes to our south. Models are starting to come into more agreement regarding the potential nor`easter and it`s not looking likely for more snow across most of the North Country. The northern stream upper level trough over Ontario pushes the system south and as the surface low deepens, its over the Carolinas. Because the northern stream and southern stream troughs stay separated the coastal low gets pushed offshore by the northern stream westerly 250mb jet. The low then stretches along a deformation axis and becomes rather elongated up the east coast which keeps most of the moisture and forcing out of the forecast area. Based on latest progs I`ve still got mention of snow across the southeastern corner of Vermont. Areas around Springfield/Ascutney may see some snow but not a significant amount as of the latest guidance. && .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 00Z Sunday...VFR conditions expected through the period. Winds will remain strong and gusty through the forecast period across the Vermont stations and after sunrise the NY stations will pick back up as well. Skies will remain largely VFR on Saturday but a quick shot of snow will be observed during the late morning/early afternoon hours as a boundary pushes through the state with decent low level instability. MVFR conditions and some IFR conditions with vsby 2 miles or less could be seen at KSLK/KPBG/KMPV/KBTV as these convective snow showers push through. Conditions will quickly trend back to VFR following snow showers as drier air quickly filters in across the North Country. Outlook... Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Verasamy NEAR TERM...Verasamy SHORT TERM...Deal LONG TERM...Deal AVIATION...Clay/Verasamy is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.