Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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986 FXUS61 KBTV 201944 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 344 PM EDT Sun May 20 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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After a cold front finishes crossing the region this afternoon, high pressure quickly builds back in tonight and Monday with clear skies and warm temperatures. Showers chances will return on Tuesday and continue into Wednesday with a couple of fronts crossing the region. Thereafter, high pressure and dry weather will take hold through the end of the week along with mild temperatures.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 329 PM EDT Sunday...A cold front continues to slowly push southeast across the North Country this afternoon, with much drier air following it its wake. Hence expect the pesky cloud cover will eventually dissipate as we head through the early evening hours. High pressure will build into the region behind the front, leading to clear skies and light winds. This will allow for radiational cooling overnight; low temperatures will mainly be in the lower to mid 40s, but mid/upper 30s will be likely in the usual cold locations in the Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom. While widespread frost is not expected, some patchy frost will be possible in sheltered locations. Monday will be a fantastic day with lots of sunshine and highs in the lower to mid 70s. West to northwest winds will pick up just a bit once we see daytime mixing with some gusts reaching 20 mph during the afternoon. Clouds will increase from west to east Monday night ahead of low pressure sliding across the Great Lakes. Rain will begin to spread into our western areas toward daybreak Tuesday. Overnight lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s are expected.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 329 PM EDT Sunday...Trends for Tuesday amongst short/medium range guidance have been towards wetter and cooler conditions with a frontal zone draped across the region a weak shortwave trough moving through during the afternoon and evening hours. NAM is the most aggressive with QPF owing to a stronger surface low pulling out of the Ohio Valley, while the remaining guidance including GFS offer a weaker low, but still fairly widespread precipitation. With that in mind, have increases PoPs to likely, and if trends continue can see it going higher. In addition, could see some instability develop across southern zones with progged CAPE values up to 500 J/kg so have included a slight chance for thunder there. Due to increased clouds and precip, opted to knock down the previous forecast highs significantly, only warming into the 60s to perhaps 70 across the northern border. Showers dissipate from northwest to southeast Tuesday night as the frontal boundary drops back southward, with mild lows ranging from the mid 40s to mid 50s.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 329 PM EDT Sunday...Overall, dry and warm conditions are expected Wednesday afternoon through Friday night with increasing chances for rain as we head through Memorial Day weekend. A upper-level trough will linger over southern QC through Thursday with a few spokes of energy rotating across the area Wednesday afternoon-Thursday. Moisture will be limited with NW flow through 500mb, therefore not anticipating much rainfall however, have kept 20s-30s PoPs with greatest chance for NE Kingdom where moisture and lift may be better. Temps will increase Friday as upper-level ridge and associated warmth move east over New England. Clear, sunny skies with 925 temps around 20C should be supportive of near 80 degree temps. Clouds will begin to increase Friday night ahead of our next system. Model consensus at this time is more or less in good agreement about a disturbance and tropical moisture streaming northward beginning Saturday, but intensity and exact position of upstream shortwave energy varies slightly...with that said however, 12z guidance is indicating that Sunday may be trending more active as approaching cold front and tropical moisture (PWATS between 1.5-1.75" per GFS) coincide with max daytime heating (CAPE values between 800-1500 J/kg at this time) thus have included mention of chance thunder in the grids.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Through 18Z MONDAY...MVFR will continue to prevail through about 21z this afternoon, mainly due to low ceilings, with occasional improvement to VFR. Clouds will dissipate as we head through the evening, with skies eventually clearing tonight. West to northwest winds will remain around 10 kt this afternoon, then become light overnight, then pick back up a bit Monday morning once daytime mixing commences. Outlook... Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Tuesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Slight chance SHRA. Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hastings NEAR TERM...Hastings SHORT TERM...Lahiff LONG TERM...LaRocca AVIATION...Hastings

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