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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBTV 151939
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
339 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A few showers will move through the region this evening before
tapering off later in the night. Dry and pleasant spring weather is
on tap on for tomorrow and Wednesday with temperatures close to
normal. Widespread showers return to end the work week but they
should move out by the weekend.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 338 PM EDT Monday...A few showers are currently in the southern
parts of the region but they should exit by this evening. In any of
the heaviest showers, there is the slight chance of pea sized hail.
Behind the showers, there will be a few hours of dry weather and
there should even be some breaks in the clouds. However, another
shortwave will pass through later this evening and it will bring
another round of scattered showers. These should be mostly confined
to northern areas though. After these showers move out, skies will
begin to clear later in the night into tomorrow morning. If the
clearing can happen quick enough, there is the chance that fog
develops in the some of the sheltered hollows as there is abundant
low-level moisture remaining. Winds should be light enough that the
boundary later will be able to decouple at least in the sheltered
areas. Lows will be close to normal, with temperatures generally
falling into the 30s across the region. A colder airmass will move
in for the day tomorrow so daytime heating will lead to convective
clouds, particularly over northeast Vermont, and an isolated
sprinkle cannot be completely ruled out. However, highs should still
be able to rise to around normal, with temperatures generally maxing
out in the 50s. Ridging will start to build in Tuesday night and
combined with the end of diurnal heating, the clouds should mostly
clear out. This should allow temperatures to drop down below normal,
with lows in the 20s and 30s across the region.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 338 PM EDT Monday...Anticyclonic flow will promote dry air and
a sunny start to the day with the ridge axis centered over western
New York. Said ridge will gradually shift into eastern New York
through the day with high clouds streaming in but there won`t be any
chance of significant/opaque clouds with the strong ridging in place
in our region. So have backed off from the NBM sky cover percentage
thinking a sunny sky, rather than partly sunny, will prevail across
northern New York in the morning and perhaps across Vermont all day
long looking at various forecast soundings. Although humidity will
remain low, dew points will tend to rise in the later part of the
day with modest low level moisture advection from the northwest.
Clouds should push further eastward and thicken somewhat overnight
ahead of a weakening, occluded front. Some precipitation may fall
out of these clouds, and once they moisten the low level air enough
some showers may reach the ground by daybreak Thursday in our far
southwestern areas, with best chances of measurable rain in southern
St. Lawrence County. The cloud cover will probably support a night
where temperatures fall off early and then become steady. So expect
some variability in low temperatures that generally fall on the
milder side, in the mid 30s to low 40s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 338 PM EDT Monday...Three distinct, minor precipitation events
from Thursday through Saturday are expected followed by dry
conditions for early next week.

No further clarity on Thursday`s weather details, unfortunately,
with regards to timing of precipitation. What we do know is the rain
will be generally light; even the 90th percentile 24 hour
precipitation amounts in the wettest scenario is under 0.5" and only
in our western areas. High temperatures Thursday likewise remain
highly uncertain owing to the differences in eastward progress of
rain and thicker cloud cover, so no significant changes to the
forecast were made with highs still forecast to be in the mid to
upper 50s. Overall we continue to show rain is more likely as you go
westward with slow progression to the east. The latest ensemble mean
timing for measurable precipitation suggests rain doesn`t arrive in
central and northeastern Vermont until after dark, while potentially
being ongoing in the St. Lawrence Valley Thursday morning. Through
Thursday night, there`s at least a 40% chance of rain in far eastern
Vermont, near 65% in the Champlain Valley, and 70-85% from the
Adirondacks westward. This round of rain is most likely to end
Friday morning areawide as brief ridging moves back overhead.

The expected cold frontal passage Friday night, in contrast, has
better model agreement at this time both in timing and sharpness.
The ingredients for instability look meager at best, but the front
looks strong enough for low level convergence to support widespread
showers and briefly moderate rainfall along the front. This event
will probably result in more rainfall in most locations than the
Thursday one, but again, not a significant amount to cause impactful
weather.

Finally, on Saturday in the post-frontal air mass, there does look
to be sufficient upper level forcing to support scattered shower
activity with lingering low level moisture. If that moisture is
meager enough, it could stay dry as signals for low humidity are
present. Additionally, the westerly flow continues to look
substantial and wind gusts have trended upward into the 25 to 30 MPH
range. Temperatures will reach their coolest levels of the period
Saturday night into Sunday behind the front before we see the air
mass modify. Temperatures over the weekend will be largely
seasonable, especially if there is plenty of sunshine to produce
superadiabatic lapse rates.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 00Z Saturday...Ceilings have been slowly rising this morning
and the trend will continue into the afternoon. All terminals should
be VFR by this evening. There are currently multiple cloud layers at
many of the terminals and the lower scattered and few layers may
briefly form a ceiling and bring conditions to MVFR, particularly
BTV, EFK and SLK. However, this should become less frequent as the
afternoon goes on and these lower layers should completely erode by
evening. There are a couple rain showers in southern Vermont and one
or two of these may hit RUT though they should be light enough to
not cause any visibility issues. A few showers will move into the
northern areas later this evening but these should also be light
enough to not cause any significantly reduced visibilities. VFR
conditions should persist through the day Tuesday. There is a low
probability of fog tonight at SLK or MPV. Throughout this TAF
period, winds will stay relatively light as gusts much above 10 KTS
are not expected at any terminal.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Myskowski
NEAR TERM...Myskowski
SHORT TERM...Kutikoff
LONG TERM...Kutikoff
AVIATION...Myskowski