Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 251734 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 134 PM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Deeper moisture moving up from the mid-Atlantic region today with bring occasional rain to the North Country. A trough of low pressure will move in from the west tonight and Thursday and continue to bring fairly widespread rain to the area. Plenty of cloud cover today and Thursday will result in temperatures at or slightly below seasonal normals. Drier weather moves in for Thursday and the first half of Friday before the chance of rain increases once again Friday afternoon and continues right through Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1041 AM EDT Wednesday...Some modest changes with this update, mainly to lower chances of rainfall significantly later today and this evening. Latest GOES-R WV shows a distinct dry slot surging northward across the Mid Atlantic as deep southerly flow continues ahead of the mean trough axis across the Great Lakes. A period of steadier rainfall, now across eastern NY into southern VT will lift into northern counties by early afternoon, but the nose of the dry slot lies immediately behind this feature and will affect the area by later this afternoon into the first half of tonight. Latest hi-res output has caught onto this trend nicely, and as such PoPs were lowered mainly into the chance category (20-50%) in this time frame. Thereafter, values climb higher once again as the main upper shortwave trough pivots into the region toward sunrise Thursday and I`ve largely kept our prior forecast intact from that point onward. Have a great day. Previous Discussion... Enough dry air has been in place early this morning to hold off any precipitation...but eventually enough saturation occurs for precipitation to move up into the area from the south. Raining across the southern half of New York and western Massachusetts and so its only a matter of time before it starts raining in our area. Precipitation chances ramp up to categorical as a result...and have kept this idea going from previous shifts. Initial surge of moisture does not look too heavy and there will likely be some breaks along with a southeast downslope component across western Vermont later today. So have mentioned occasional rain for today. Highs will generally be in the 50s today with plenty of cloud cover expected. Occasional rain continues early tonight before dry slot moves up into the region...which will help to decrease precipitation chances across Vermont overnight. At the same time...upstream trough begins to reach northern New York and with increasing dynamic support ahead of the trough the best precipitation chances will continue across northern New York overnight. Eventually this feature gradually moves east into Vermont Thursday afternoon and the areal coverage of showers should increase just about everywhere before tapering off from west to east late in the day on Thursday. Extensive cloud cover along with the rain should keep high temperatures generally in the 50s once again. Expected rainfall today through Thursday afternoon should be in the half to three quarter inch range with locally higher amounts. With temperatures remaining above freezing there should be snowmelt taking place...but with temperatures not reaching as warm as what they have been...river responses should not be significant. Yes there will be rises and a couple of rivers could get to action stage...but rainfall and snowmelt do not look like they will be enough to cause more substantial problems. Nevertheless will continue to monitor the hydrologic situation. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 356 AM EDT Wednesday...Vertically stacked low pressure system will push well east of the region on Thursday night and showers will come to an end during the first part of the overnight after lingering a bit across the Northern Vermont mountains. Another surface low pressure system will lift Northward on Friday from the Mid Atlantic region towards southern New York and New England. Increasing clouds and chance for precipitation are expected for Vermont with this system. Best chance for showers will be in our Southeastern zones. This Southern stream low will be just ahead of another northern stream wave digging from the Great Lakes region Eastward. There were previous model discrepancies with these features, but now have come into better line with each other. Have continued with previous forecaster`s thinking, lower temps on Fri and increasing pops. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 356 AM EDT Wednesday...Upper level trough along with Northern stream energy swing through our area for Friday night into Saturday and weather remains cool and unsettled with plenty of clouds and scattered showers. Upper level trough will bring cool air mass with it and temperatures will be cool again through Sunday. Warmer and drier weather will return for the Mon through Wed timeframe next week with a large area of high pressure anchoring over the Eastern conus. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 18z Thursday...After a slow start to the rainfall across the North Country, it finally looks like some light to moderate rainfall has begun to develop across New York and is quickly moving to the north. Conditions have begun to deteriorate toward MVFR ceilings and will continue to trend downward as the rainfall shifts north. High-res guidance shows a dry pocket developing late evening into the overnight hours which could spell a break in rainfall but ceilings should still continue to lower to around 800 ft to 1500 ft around midnight. Otherwise, periods of light rain will continue through the forecast package but will begin to taper off after 15Z on Thursday. Outlook... Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN. Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Evenson NEAR TERM...Evenson/JMG SHORT TERM...Neiles LONG TERM...Neiles AVIATION...Clay is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.