Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 210242 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1042 PM EDT Fri Apr 20 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Mountain snow showers will taper off to flurries through this evening as an upper level system slowly drifts east over the Canadian Maritimes. Temps will remain below normal through the weekend under a cool but drier northwest flow. A warming trend begins on Sunday as high pressure builds over the Northeast. Temperatures will rise to near normal in the mid 50s by Sunday and above normal into the 60s early next week with plenty of sunshine. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 1042 PM EDT Friday...Clouds hanging tough...especially over Vermont and have had to make some minor tweaks to keep clouds around longer and raise temperatures up a bit. Rest of forecast remains in good shape. Previous Discussion... Going forecast is on track so little change as unseasonably cold NW flow continues. Still a chance of some light snow showers or flurries but moisture will become shallower and with loss of daytime heating, less convective. Still looking at lots of clouds, especially in the upslope regions as cold air and the shallow moisture is trapped by a strong subsidence inversion. Temp drop tonight will be limited by the cloud cover with lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s. On Saturday the NW flow of cold air continues, but with not quite as cold as today as 925mb temps rise to about -1C. With with drier air aloft any extensive cloud cover will slide off to the northeast as high pressure and subsidence builds into the region. High temps should reach the mid 40s to even a 50 degree reading near VSF. Saturday night skies should be clearing everywhere as high pressure approaches from the Great Lakes with low temps mainly in the 20s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 125 PM EDT Friday...Large deep layer ridge will be in place over the Northern New York and Vermont area Sunday and Sunday night. Mostly clear skies and moderating temperatures are expected. Although temperatures will still be a bit below seasonal normals during this period, the weather will be quite pleasant. Winds will remain nwly on Sunday, perhaps reaching 10 mph or so during the mid-day hours with best PBL mixing. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 345 PM EDT Friday...High pressure ridge will be centered over the region still Monday morning, then slide eastward Monday night. Monday should be a nice sunny day with near normal temperatures. On Tuesday return southerly flow will help to bump our temperatures above normal, with highs reaching the 60s areawide, our warmest day for quite some time. From Tuesday night onward GFS and ECMWF not in very much agreement at all, leading to lower confidence in the details. Does look like weather will remain active from mid week onward. Still lots of model disagreement on the phasing of northern and southern stream shortwave troughs. GFS continues to show a much slower solution keeping precipitation over our area through the end of the period. ECMWF clears things out quicker, giving us a couple drier days towards the end of the week. Lots of uncertainty this far out, but overall trend is for temperatures back around normal and active weather for at least Wed. && .AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 00Z Sunday...VFR conditions are expected through the period. Ceilings through 12z should be in the 4000 to 6000 foot range and then clouds will become scattered after 12z and through the remainder of the period. Winds will become light and variable by 06z tonight...then increase from the northwest after 14z but at speeds of 10 knots or less. Outlook... Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Sisson NEAR TERM...Evenson/Sisson SHORT TERM...Neiles LONG TERM...Neiles AVIATION...Evenson

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