Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 202246 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 646 PM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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Clear skies will give way to increasing cloud cover after midnight tonight as a coastal low moves off the coast of Virginia and tracks eastward. At this time it still looks like most of the impacts will be felt south of the North Country... but a few snow showers cannot be ruled out for southern Vermont on Wednesday. Temperatures will trend closer to normal values for the second half of the week heading into the weekend as the coastal low helps to displace the high pressure that has been entrenched across the region over the past several days.
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As of 645 PM EDT Tuesday...Going forecast in real good shape and no big changes needed at this time. Just some high thin cirrus across southern Vermont early this evening and the extra sunlight is keeping temperatures up a bit. Have adjusted temperature trends this evening to match slightly warmer temperatures...but overnight low temperatures are still expected to be realized. Previous Discussion... It was a beautiful first day of spring today as sunny skies were observed across the North Country. However, temperatures did trend about 10 degrees below normal so far this afternoon with overnight lows last night 15 to 20 degrees below normal. The clear skies will come to an end after midnight tonight as cirrus associated with a coastal low well south of the area begins to overspread the area. The biggest question with the cloud cover is to when it will begin to build across the region as it could impact overnight low temperatures quite significantly. Visible imagery this afternoon shows that some cirrus clouds have moved into southern Vermont but is making little progress northward. This is because as the low continues to track eastward, there won`t be much of a push northward for clouds to build across the area. Cloud cover is still expected to develop just before sunrise Wednesday morning that may inhibit overnight temperatures a bit. However, with clear skies for the majority of the overnight period, temperatures are expected to still plummet after sunset. This time, however, temperatures will be a bit warmer as temperatures will generally be in teens with some locations in the single digits. Wednesday will be warmer as the coastal low is helping to displace the high pressure system that has been entrenched across the region. 850 temperatures by tomorrow afternoon will warm to -4 degrees C (currently -10 degrees C) which is a big change from the near -20 degrees C temps observed earlier this week. High temperatures will be in the upper 20s to upper 30s which is closer to normal values but still slightly below normal. Most of the North Country will miss out on any precipitation as the coastal low tracks to far to the south and east but a few snow showers may be seen across southern Vermont with little to no accumulation thanks to the spring sun. Temperatures overnight on Wednesday into Thursday will be closer to normal as cloud cover will inhibit much in terms of radiational cooling. Lows will generally be in the mid teens to mid 20s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 327 PM EDT Tuesday...Mid-week continues to look rather quiet with the North Country largely dominated by a broad upper trough over the Northeast. Difference in todays NWP is that a little bit of upper ridging looks to develop in-between the exiting coastal system and shortwave energy entering into the Great Lakes during the period. So overall conditions look to be generally dry outside of a few mountain snow showers possible Thursday afternoon before the ridge builds in. Temps will run about 5 degrees below normal with highs in the 30s and lows in the 20s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 327 PM EDT Tuesday...End of the week through early next week also continues to look quiet as the region remains under the influence of an upper trough aloft and building high pressure from the north at the surface. Eventually the upper trough shifts east late in the weekend allowing ridging aloft to build eastward from the Great Lakes for Sunday and Monday. Dry weather and a gradual warming trend is expected with each day warming a degree or two from the low/mid 30s Friday to upper 30s and low 40s by Monday. As the surface high and ridge aloft shift offshore Tuesday, southwesterly return flow should finally warm temps back to above normal area-wide by Tuesday, with our next chance for widespread precipitation looming Tuesday night. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 18z Wednesday...VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period as high pressure remains dominant. Skies will remain mostly clear through the period until midnight when cirrus clouds begin to build across the region. Some gusty winds will develop late Wednesday morning in response to the coastal low tracking to our south and east but should remain 20 kts or less. Outlook... Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Friday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. NO SIG WX. Saturday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Slight chance SHSN. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Clay NEAR TERM...Evenson/Clay SHORT TERM...Lahiff LONG TERM...Lahiff AVIATION...Clay is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.