Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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936 FXUS61 KBTV 192011 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 411 PM EDT Sat May 19 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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A warm front will lift through the North Country this evening, keeping the threat of showers around as well as causing temperatures to warm overnight. A cold front will cross the region on Sunday, bringing showers to an end by the afternoon. High pressure quickly builds back in to start the work week with above normal temperatures and dry weather.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 410 PM EDT Saturday...The first round of widespread showers will continue into the evening hours as a warm front lifts northward across New England. Expect we`ll see a brief break in the precipitation for a few hours around midnight or so as the best warm advection moves north and we see a bit of a dry slot. However, showers will return late tonight/early Sunday morning ahead of a cold front approaching from the Great Lakes. A S-SW low level jet will cross the region out ahead of this cold front with gusts up to 30 mph possible. Note that there will be a bit of elevated instability ahead of the cold front, though models disagree to what degree. The NAM is showing up to 300 J/kg, but this is likely overdone. Still, wouldn`t be surprised if there is a rumble of thunder or two, just don`t expect coverage to be enough to include mention in the forecast. The cold front will be poised at our back door shortly after daybreak Sunday and will make its push across the region during the morning hours. Drier air will quickly follow the frontal passage, bringing the showers to an end and eventually allowing for sunshine by late Sunday afternoon. Highs will range from the mid 60s in the higher elevations to around 70 in the wider valleys. Clear skies will dominate Sunday night with high pressure building into the region. Lows will be in the lower to mid 40s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 350 PM EDT Saturday...A quiet start the work week is expected for Monday as surface high pressure builds into the region along with abundant sunshine. Aloft we remain in west/northwest flow with a departing upper trough to the northeast so winds will be brisk in the 10-15 mph range, but with steep low level lapse rates and 925mb temps in the mid teens above zero celsius, it`ll feel pretty good out there with surface temps warming into the 70s area-wide. Monday night begins clear with winds dropping off supporting excellent radiational cooling, but after midnight high clouds will be on the increase making the min temp forecast tricky. Trended towards colder guidance thinking high clouds will only slightly temper cooling, with lows generally ranging from the mid 40s to low 50s. On Tuesday, the main idea is that a weak shortwave trough will traverse the region during the afternoon and evening hours, but confidence is low on precip potential due to difference in guidance on the northern extent of deeper moisture. Think there will likely be some isolated showers around but will offer chance pops for now based on uncertainty. Highs will generally be in the 70s again, with milder overnight lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 350 PM EDT Saturday...Overall, next week looks rather dry as behind the aforementioned shortwave trough passage, high pressure builds in for the remainder of the week through Friday. We potentially get a glancing blow of cooler air from an upper trough passing northeast of the region Wednesday, but highs will still be in the upper 60s to low 70s, which is right about normal for this time of year. Slightly warmer temperatures are expected for Thursday and Friday, before our next chance for precipitation comes Friday night into Saturday. Increasing southwesterly flow between Bermuda high pressure and a cold front pushing into the upper Mid-West will potentially tap into rich Gulf moisture Saturday afternoon, with the wildcard being the juxtaposition of a potential tropical system as depicted in the 12Z GFS. Time will tell on how this all plays out. && .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Through 18Z SUNDAY...VFR conditions will give way to MVFR ceilings as light rain associated with an approaching warm front spreads into the region this afternoon. Ceilings will drop to 1500-2500 ft over the next couple of hours, then remain so through a good part of tonight into Sunday morning, though there will be a break in the rain for a bit on either side of midnight. Local IFR will be possible late tonight, particularly at KSLK. Conditions will improve from west to east late Sunday morning as precipitation ends behind a cold frontal passage. Winds will increase from the S this afternoon around 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt or so. Gusts should be limited after 18z during the rain, however the exception may be RUT with may maintain gusty SSE winds through 00z. Areas of LLWS and turbulence area expected after 03z around 2000 ft but lowering to 1000 ft with the warm front aloft with a strong 35-50 kt SW jet just above the surface. Outlook... Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hastings NEAR TERM...Hastings SHORT TERM...Lahiff LONG TERM...Lahiff AVIATION...Hastings

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