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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBTV 142332
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
732 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Intermittent rain showers continue through the overnight hours,
becoming more scattered on Monday. Dry and pleasant spring weather
is on tap on Tuesday and Wednesday before widespread rain
returns to end the work week. The weekend looks mainly dry with
cooler temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 731 PM EDT Sunday...Showers continue to decrease in areal
coverage across the region from west to east this evening and
the expectation is that within the next couple of hours only the
far northern reaches of Northeast Vermont will have showers
lingering until midnight. Dry conditions prevail thereafter
along with cloudy skies and light winds possibly developing some
areas of fog. Low temps will be in the mid 30s to low 40s.

On Monday, forecast highs should top out close to climatological
normals, which are in the low to mid 50s. Expect plenty of clouds to
start the day, with intervals of sunshine developing during the
morning hours. However, we remain under broad cyclonic flow thanks
to a vertically stacked upper low pressure system meandering across
northern Quebec. The lobes of weak shortwave energy rounding the
trough from Ontario into northern New England mean that clouds will
likely fill back in by mid day into the afternoon hours with
occasional light rain showers. That being said, the southern
Champlain Valley and southern Vermont has the best chance of seeing
more sunshine, and if that is the case, some locations south of
Route 4 could see highs in the upper 50s to near 60. Snow levels are
expected to rise to 3500-4000 ft as the day progresses, so any minor
accumulations will be confined the Adirondack High Peaks and
northern Greens, above any mountain pass. Forecast soundings suggest
rather deep boundary layer mixing up to 850 and even 800mb for
certain sites, so west or northwest winds could gust 25 to 30 mph at
times. Heading into Monday night, colder air will be moving in aloft
but it looks like it will take longer for the cold air to arrive
below 850mb. So expect isolated to scattered showers to linger for
the first half of the overnight hours, and once the drier air
arrives, temperatures should fall more quickly during the latter
half of the overnight hours. Overnight lows for Monday night are
forecast to be in the mid 30s to near 40 across the St Lawrence and
Champlain valley, but upper 20s to just above freezing in the colder
hollows.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 303 PM EDT Sunday...Tuesday continues to look like a seasonable
early spring day with no precipitation. Enough low level moisture
will swing southeastward around the backside of the lingering trough
to aid in mainly fair weather cumulus, with perhaps a mostly cloud
sky at times, more likely as you go north and eastward. Temperatures
should rebound into the 50s, with somewhat of a north to south
gradient in addition to the typical elevational differences given
cooler air aloft in northern areas. A modest pressure gradient with
high pressure to our northwest and low pressure to our northeast
will help deepen the boundary layer to at least the 800 millibar
level. As a result of mixing dry air downward, we continue to lower
minimum humidity values. The lack of stronger winds and recent wet
conditions should keep fire danger concerns at bay. The relatively
light flow will support decoupling after dark, with temperatures in
most areas dropping back to near or below freezing by Wednesday
morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 303 PM EDT Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected during
this period, although a period of unsettled conditions is expected
mainly midday Thursday through Friday.

A strong ridge will build into Wednesday. Therefore, beautiful sunny
spring weather can be expected. Given position of surface high
pressure to our north and modest, shallow cold air advection,
temperatures will be held to near normal values in the 50s, locally
60s in the lower Connecticut River Valley and southern St. Lawrence
Valley, despite abundant sunshine. Winds look rather light,
especially outside of the wide valleys, with weak flow aloft.

The weather becomes more interesting late in the week, although the
next system looks to be in a weakening phase as it approaches our
region. Thursday`s high temperatures look more uncertain than
typical aside from Vermont`s Northeast Kingdom, per NBM max
temperature standard deviation, probably owing to differences in
precipitation timing. So assuming we see ample sunshine, I would not
be surprised if the official forecast trends warmer, which currently
suggests most likely highs will be mainly in the mid to upper 50s.
With a later arrival of rain, given the warm pre-frontal air mass,
it would be reasonable to see temperatures surge well into the 60s
in the deeper valleys. Per GEFS mean 850 millibar temperatures, the
largest anomalies will be focused up the St. Lawrence Valley, but
precipitation is more likely to arrive there during the morning.

In the latest available global ensemble cluster analysis, three of
the four scenarios show a stronger ridge/slower progression of the
next trough from the west to keep most or all of the region dry
through at least 8 AM Thursday. Therefore, only a slight chance of
rain Wednesday night through Thursday morning is reasonable.
Thereafter, a slug of light to moderate rain is expected to
eventually move through but model agreement is poor on both timing
and spatial distribution of relatively heavy precipitation. In
general, better chances of higher precipitation amounts will be as
you go westward. The PoPs during the Thursday afternoon through
Friday afternoon period largely match this idea.

For the weekend, signals are strong for a cool and mainly dry period
as low level flow becomes westerly/northwesterly behind a cold front
dropping in from our northwest. One ensemble cluster with multi-
model support suggests near advisory level wind gusts on Saturday,
but the general idea of gusty westerly winds looks reasonable. For
now we show gusts mainly 20-25 MPH as the most likely scenario,
enough for a brisk day but nothing more. Enough cyclonic flow will
be in place behind the front to potentially spark showers, but this
pattern suggests meager precipitation amounts if anything develops.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Through 00Z Tuesday...A mix of VFR and MVFR ceilings will
prevail through 12Z with cloudy skies and light winds leading to
areas of reduced visibility, likely to MVFR and potentially IFR
in spots. After 12Z, MVFR conditions lift to VFR with isolated
to widely scattered showers possible through the afternoon.
Winds remain relatively light Monday morning, becoming westerly
at 6-12kts in the afternoon.

Outlook...

Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KSLK is experiencing comms issues. Dataflow may be sporadic.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Chai
NEAR TERM...Chai/Lahiff
SHORT TERM...Kutikoff
LONG TERM...Kutikoff
AVIATION...Lahiff
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV