Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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916 FXUS61 KBTV 201721 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 121 PM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure remains well entrenched across the North Country. Persistent northwesterly flow will keep unseasonably cold and dry weather over the North Country through midweek. A coastal low will strengthen Wednesday as it moves from the Carolina coast northeastward. The brunt of the impacts with this system still look to be to our south and east, however we can`t rule out some light precipitation over southern areas of Vermont late Wednesday into Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 109 PM EDT Tuesday...Current forecast is on track and just adjusted temperatures a few degrees here and there to account for current trends. Remainder of forecast was well on track and didn`t make any edits. Previous discussion...High pressure will remain lodged across the North Country today, resulting in another day of sunshine and cool temperatures. Winds will be fairly light and with highs in the upper 20s to lower 30s, it should be an overall pleasant day. For tonight and Wednesday...low pressure will develop off the Mid Atlantic coast and slide east-northeast. Precipitation associated with this system will spread north and east as well, moving into southern New England during the day Wednesday. The high pressure will remain wedged over our region, keeping the low shunted to the south and east of the benchmark. Note that the NAM and SREF are more aggressive with bringing the precip shield north, while the GFS, ECMWF, and CMC pretty much keep our forecast area dry. Current thinking is to lean closer to the drier solutions as precip will likely have a hard time making much northward progress given the dry airmass that currently resides across the North Country. However, don`t want to totally discount the higher-res models, so have gone with a model blend. This results in a chance of snow late Wednesday afternoon for areas along south of a Quechee to Rutland line. Little to no daytime snow accumulation is expected. After morning lows mainly in the 5-15 degree range, Wednesday`s highs will top out in the upper 20s to mid 30s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 352 AM EDT Tuesday...On Wednesday night coastal low pressure system will be tracking just outside the benchmark off the coast of Cape Cod. All of the stronger forcing and deeper moisture will be southeast of our region. Do expected some light snow for Windsor County Wednesday night, have mentioned up to about two inches of snowfall. On Thursday as the low lifts north and eastward, will have some wrap around light snow showers in the Northeast Kingdom of Vermont. Accumulations will be light. Temperatures will be near seasonal normals Wednesday night with plenty of clouds across the region, then cooler than seasonal normals on Thursday. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 352 AM EDT Tuesday...No big changes for the long term portion of the forecast from Thursday night through Tuesday. Still mainly just an upper trough over the area, mainly resulting in a bunch of clouds and some colder than normal temperatures continuing. Will have occasional bits of shortwave energy pass through the progressive flow and a few mountain snow showers will be possible. Temperatures will start out colder than seasonal normals, trending back towards normal headed into next weekend. && .AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Through 18z Wednesday...VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period as high pressure remains dominant. Skies will remain mostly clear through the period until midnight when cirrus clouds begin to build across the region. Some gusty winds will develop late Wednesday morning in response to the coastal low tracking to our south and east but should remain 20 kts or less. Outlook... Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Friday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. NO SIG WX. Saturday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Slight chance SHSN. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hastings NEAR TERM...Clay/Hastings SHORT TERM...Neiles LONG TERM...Neiles AVIATION...Clay is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.