Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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726 FXUS61 KBTV 220522 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 122 AM EDT Thu Mar 22 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Slow-moving low pressure will pass south of New England tonight, spreading clouds and periods of light snow overnight across southeastern Vermont. Any accumulations will be light, with a dusting to an inch possible in the Connecticut River Valley. High pressure will otherwise bring mainly dry weather over the next 5 to 7 days. Temperatures will be near to slightly below normal through the first half of the weekend, before moderating above normal into the early to mid portion of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
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As of 118 AM EDT Thursday...Snow is having a hard time making much northward progress at this hour as north winds are keeping the drier air well established across the region. Noted that much of the latest hi-res guidance shows little to no snow accumulation through the remainder of the overnight period. Don`t want to jump on that quite yet as there is snow upstream, but did lower PoPs and snow amounts just a bit. Otherwise the forecast remains on track and no other changes were needed. Prior discussion... Relatively quiet period of weather with just south-central VT feeling the fringe effects of offshore low with periods of light snow possible tonight. Snow amounts of a dusting to one inch are expected in Windsor county VT, with little or no accumulation elsewhere. Afternoon 2-m dewpoints are only in the teens across the North Country, with dry northerly trajectories from strong sfc anticyclone across wrn Quebec and northern Ontario. This dry northerly airstream will preclude much of a northward push of snowfall into our forecast area, despite the ongoing mid-upper level overcast. Good model consensus, including high-resolution NWP suite, on sfc low track just south of 40N 70W benchmark around 09Z/Thu, and eventually out to sea south of Nova Scotia during the day on Thursday. Seeing just some potential light snow on far nwrn fringe of precipitation shield reaching into Windsor Co. and the srn Greens along the U.S. Route 4 corridor, mainly 06-12Z. Any impact will be minimal, with snow accumulations only a dusting to an inch possible. Elsewhere, will see a mid-high level overcast, except some partially clear periods across far nrn NY. With this in mind, should see lows in the teens across nrn NY, but in the 23-27F range across VT with clouds mitigating radiative cooling. Winds overnight will generally remain northerly at 5-9mph, except locally NE in the St. Lawrence Valley. Will see somewhat stronger daytime winds on Thursday with steepening lapse rates and moderate p-gradient on back side of departing low south of Nova Scotia. Should see winds N winds 10-15mph, with gusts 20-25 mph during the afternoon hrs with best mixing. Daytime highs on Thursday generally 34-38F with variably cloudy skies, and a few mountain flurries. A weak mid-level trough in WNW flow will settle to our south and west across wrn/central NY during Thursday night. May see some increasing clouds across nrn NY with 20-30% chance of snow showers in the Adirondacks. Again, limited low-level moisture, so little or no accumulation forecast. Lows Thursday night mainly in the low-mid 20s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /2 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 316 PM EDT Wednesday...The end of the week and weekend will be largely dominated by a broad upper trough over the northeast, with several piece of shortwave energy moving near or over the region. First shortwave passes south of the forecast area Friday with perhaps a few light snow showers across northern New York, but dry elsewhere. Second shortwave looks to pass directly over the region Saturday/Saturday night with a better chance for more scattered snow showers across the region, but with the lack of any strong forcing or deep layer moisture, we`re not looking at any real accumulations more than a dusting from whatever falls. Skies through the period are generally cloudy with a few breaks of sun possible during Saturday and Sunday afternoons. Temps will be just a tad below normal, with highs ranging through the 30s and lows in the mid teens to low 20s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 316 PM EDT Wednesday...The aforementioned upper trough finally looks to exit east of the region late Sunday into Sunday night as a high amplitude upper ridge and surface high pressure build in from the west-northwest. Skies will trend towards clear Sunday night and remain sunny/clear through Monday night before high pressure shifts east and southerly return flow brings some clouds and warmer temperatures back to the region for Tuesday. With clear skies and light winds expected, both Sunday and Monday nights will be quite chilly for late March with lows persisting in the teens and 20s. Highs Tuesday finally bounce back above normal with 925mb temps rising above 0C supporting highs in the 40s to potentially near 50 at KBTV. Temps should remain mild Tuesday night in the 20s and 30s as south-southwesterly flow persists and clouds increase further in advance of an approaching low pressure system which could bring our first round of spring showers on Wednesday. && .AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Through 06Z Friday...TAFs will remain predominantly VFR throughout the TAF period. Mid and high clouds will remain in place as a coastal low pivots offshore. This cloud cover should be the extent of the impacts our TAF sites see from this low, though can`t rule out a few flurries at RUT through 12z this morning. Ceilings will lower to around 4000 ft after 00z Fri as an upper trough approaches from the eastern Great Lakes. Winds overnight at all TAF sites will generally be 5-10 knots from the north, however wind speeds will pick up during the daytime tomorrow. Expect N to NE winds at 10-15 kts with some gusts up to 25 kts during the afternoon hours. Outlook... Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Saturday: MVFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN. Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Banacos NEAR TERM...Banacos/Hastings SHORT TERM...Lahiff LONG TERM...Lahiff AVIATION...Hastings is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.