Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 151742 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 142 PM EDT Tue May 15 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front across southern Quebec and Ontario will settle southward across the North Country today. Combined with a mid-level disturbance approaching from the Great Lakes, periods of showers are expected across the region today, with a chance of thunderstorms, mainly across south-central Vermont. Cooler and drier conditions return tonight with light north winds. Will see areas of fog tonight as skies become mostly clear. Dry and seasonable weather conditions are expected Wednesday through Friday. Additional rain is expected to accompany a warm front during the day Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 1055 AM EDT Tuesday...Minor updates as of late morning to lower high temperatures by 2-4 degrees across central/northern counties given ambient cloud cover and persistent shower activity. Also updated pops to show higher probabilities (80-100%) for these areas per latest hi-res HRRR/BTV WRF output - all and all relatively minor changes. Have a great day. Prior discussion... A cold front extended from north of Quebec City wswwd into the northern Great Lakes region. Strong 300mb jet extends along and north of the front, with right entrance region enhancing upper tropospheric divergence and helping to drive convective storms early this AM across Lake Erie and southeastern Ontario into srn lower Michigan. It`s a relatively warm pre-dawn period across the North Country. South of the frontal bndry, south winds and mid-upper level clouds overspreading the region from WSW-ENE are keeping temperatures mainly in the 50s, though better mixing in the Champlain Valley has BTV at 67F at 0730Z. Overall expectation for today is that mid-upr level forcing across the ern Great Lakes will shift enewd into our region this morning, driving widespread clouds and numerous showers crossing the nrn half of the CWA during the 12-18Z period...mainly across nrn NY and nrn VT. There is some modest moistening of the low- mid levels with PW values climbing to 1.2-1.4" per 00Z NAM. Raised PoPs to 80-90% for light to moderate showers...should see QPF mainly in the 0.25-0.50" range. A bit further south, surface-based instability axis develops with daytime heating from central PA newd into western New England. South-central VT is on the northern fringe of the instability, with SBCAPE values reaching 400-600 J/kg across Rutland/Windsor counties around 18Z per NAM and 3km NAM- Nest. As surface boundary settles southward across the North Country this afternoon, will see increasing likelihood of some embedded convective elements across across Windsor/Rutland/Orange counties 18-22Z time frame. While activity is not expected to become severe, dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning and brief heavy rainfall will be possible. Included mention of this in the morning Hazardous Weather Outlook for Rutland/Windsor/Orange counties. Further north, will generally see showers ending once front pushes thru the area around 18Z. Abundant clouds will keep temperatures near seasonal averages for mid-May, with highs today generally be in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Light northerly flow and ridge axis building into nrn NY and VT will bring drier air tonight with dewpoints dropping back into the 40s. With the expected 0.25-0.50" rainfall today and clearing skies/light winds tonight, anticipate areas of fog, especially in the favored valleys. Overnight lows mainly in the low-mid 40s, except as low as the mid 30s across the nrn Adirondacks and far nern VT. Once fog dissipates, should see mostly sunny conditions on Wednesday with a return of southerly winds 10-15 mph. Temperatures will moderate back into the low-mid 70s for highs. PoPs NIL overnight thru Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 338 AM EDT Tuesday...High pressure remains over the area for Wednesday night into Thursday as dry weather continues. Seasonal temperatures are expected with lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s and highs in the mid 60s to the lower 70s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 338 AM EDT Tuesday...Thursday night into Friday will continue to see dry weather with high pressure remaining over the northeast United States. Models have slowed a bit as deeper moisture looks to begin moving into the region Friday night into early Saturday morning. Periods of rain showers are expected across most of the region Saturday afternoon and into Sunday. Plenty of cloud cover...precipitation...and deeper moisture will result in daytime temperatures slightly below normal temperatures for the weekend. Higher precipitable water values are expected in this flow pattern and the idea of fairly widespread rainfall totals of a half inch to an inch continues to looks good. Deeper moisture pushes east Sunday night into Monday for a return toward drier weather next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Through 18Z Wednesday...Mainly VFR through the forecast period. Rain showers to end northwest to southeast during the 18-22Z time frame with any lingering IFR/MVFR obstructions at KMPV/KSLK to end also. Winds light northwesterly generally less than 10 kts, trending near calm overnight. Main forecast challenge overnight will be potential coverage of any br/fg at favored terminals. Confidence only moderate at this time given stronger flow aloft, though have mentioned some br and scattered lower cigs at KMPV/KSLK where highest probabilities exist. After 12Z Wednesday, VFR continues with sct high cigs above 200 AGL as winds trend light southerly (northeasterly at KMSS). Outlook... Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Saturday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA. Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Banacos NEAR TERM...Banacos/JMG SHORT TERM...Verasamy LONG TERM...Verasamy AVIATION...JMG

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