Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 220738 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 338 AM EDT Thu Mar 22 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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Low pressure situated off the East Coast will pull away from the region today, perhaps bringing a few wrap-around snow showers in the mountains today. An upper trough will swing across New York tomorrow and may produce scattered snow showers over the Adirondacks. Otherwise, surface high pressure will keep the weather dry over the next several days. Temperatures will be near to slightly below normal through the first half of the weekend before moderating to above normal by the middle of next week.
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As of 338 AM EDT Thursday...Low pressure continues to spin off the southern New England coast this morning while high pressure remains firmly lodged to the north and west. The dry air associated with the ridge has been very hard for the low`s precipitation to overcome; radar returns have been light with no indications of any snow actually reaching the ground in southeast Vermont. Radar signatures have actually been decreasing recently, so other than perhaps some light flurries, don`t anticipate any snow to fall until a bit later today. Winds will turn to the northwest this afternoon as the low lifts well east of our area, and this may be enough to produce a few showers across the favored upslope areas of the Adirondacks and Greens. Little to no snow accumulation is expected. A weak 850 mb jet looks to develop on the backside of the departing low this afternoon and could see some of the higher winds mix down with a bit of daytime heating this afternoon. Gusts up to 30 mph will be possible. Highs today will be in the mid to upper 30s in the wider valleys while the mountains will be in the lower to mid 30s. Better chances for precipitation arrive later tonight into Friday, especially over the northern Adirondacks, as a shortwave travels across Ontario, western NY, and PA in the northwest flow aloft. The resultant lift along with increasing moisture will allow scattered snow showers to develop over the northern Adirondacks late tonight through Friday, spreading eastward into Vermont in the afternoon. Highs will be in the lower to mid 30s in the mountains, limiting any snow accumulation to less than an inch. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer in the valleys, so any snow showers in these areas may mix with and/or change to rain for a time.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 320 AM EDT Thursday...Mid/upper level trof prevails across the ne conus for this upcoming weekend. Temps will continue to be below normal thru Sunday...with another modified surge of colder air arriving late Sat into Sunday. Clouds will have an impact on temps, for both daytime highs and overnight recent trend of large diurnal swings will be limited this weekend. In addition...potent s/w energy dropping south will increase with some increasing mid level moisture and low level upslope flow to produce terrain driven snow showers. The best combination of moisture and forcing occurs between 06z-15z have mentioned high chc pops in the mountains. Any accumulation will be light maybe an inch or so, northern VT mountains and parts of the NEK. Tricky temp forecast with northerly winds both Sat/Sun and some modest low level cold air advection with clouds. Progged 925mb temps between -6c and -8c with coldest values in the cpv/slv maybe keep highs only in the 30s with 20s mountains Saturday and again on Sunday...which is now 5 to 10 degrees below normal. Expect lows in the mid teens to mid 20s...but if more clearing develops than anticipated these values will be 5 to 10 degrees colder. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 320 AM EDT Thursday...Large scale pattern change develops by early next downstream flow over the western Atlantic becomes strongly blocked. Large scale models continue to show a high over low pattern developing downstream...which places our cwa in favorable sweet spot of building high pres both aloft and at the surface. This pattern will result in modifying temps by early next week...with mainly dry conditions expected thru Tuesday. Given the deep layer from large scale subsidence...anticipating large swings in daily temps again for Sunday Night thru Tuesday...with a trend toward above normal values. Progged 850mb temps btwn -2c and -4c Monday...should support highs mid 30s to mid 40s. 925mb and 850mb temps rise above 0c on Tuesday with values btwn 2 and 5c...supporting mid 40s to l/m 50s. Based on plenty of sunshine and thermal profiles have gone 3 to 5 degrees above superblend. Potential issues could be limited mixing (shallow low level inversion) with ridge axis directly overhead and remaining snow pack. Otherwise...large scale blocking pattern slowly breaks down midweek with a chance for mainly rain showers Weds before cooler air arrives Thursday into Friday. && .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 06Z Friday...TAFs will remain predominantly VFR throughout the TAF period. Mid and high clouds will remain in place as a coastal low pivots offshore. This cloud cover should be the extent of the impacts our TAF sites see from this low, though can`t rule out a few flurries at RUT through 12z this morning. Ceilings will lower to around 4000 ft after 00z Fri as an upper trough approaches from the eastern Great Lakes. Winds overnight at all TAF sites will generally be 5-10 knots from the north, however wind speeds will pick up during the daytime tomorrow. Expect N to NE winds at 10-15 kts with some gusts up to 25 kts during the afternoon hours. Outlook... Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Saturday: MVFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN. Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hastings NEAR TERM...Hastings SHORT TERM...Taber LONG TERM...Taber AVIATION...Hastings is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.