Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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170 FXUS61 KBTV 261056 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 656 AM EDT Thu Apr 26 2018 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level low pressure system will move slowly east across the area today and enhance the potential for more showers... especially over northern New York and the northern half of Vermont. The low moves east of the region tonight and dry weather moves in. The dry air will be short lived as a low pressure system moves into the region from the southwest on Friday and spreads more showers back into the region... especially during the afternoon and evening hours. Unsettled weather and cooler temperatures are expected for the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 656 AM EDT Thursday...Overall forecast in good shape. Plenty of low level moisture around for areas of fog which forecast has covered well. In addition...upper circulation moving eastward and is currently centered around Watertown New York. Forcing ahead of this feature is causing a band of precipitation across parts of eastern New York and western Vermont. Should see areal coverage of precipitation increase over the area as the morning wears on and going forecast has this covered well. So no big changes needed at this time. Previous Discussion... Plenty of low level moisture continues to linger over the area early this morning. This has led to the development of fog...which has been producing reduced visibilities at times. Have added this to the forecast through about mid-morning. This is when we should start to see some mixing with increasing west to southwest winds and increasing precipitation chances as upper low moves slowly east across the area. Based on the track of the low northern New York and the northern half of Vermont will have the best chance for precipitation...with an additional quarter to half inch of rain expected. This should help promote additional rises on area waterways with some higher level snowmelt taking place. High temperatures will range from the upper 40s to the mid 50s. Upper low is east of the area tonight and with more favorable dynamic support east of the region as well...precipitation will quickly come to an end by midnight with lows expected in the mid 30s to lower 40s. The dry weather will not last long...Friday morning will be dry...but a shortwave trough moving northeast toward the region will bring rain back into the area Friday afternoon...especially across Vermont. Highs will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 434 AM EDT Thursday...Friday night and Saturday an upper level trough will remain anchored to our west, and upper level shortwaves passing through the southwesterly flow will bring several chances for showers to the area. Highest chance for showers will be right at the start of the short term, 00z Saturday, with a potent shortwave passing along our Eastern CWA border. A low pressure system will also track along the Southern New England coast while another low approaches from the Northwest. Lots of moisture and dynamics in place, therefore have gone with categorical rain showers for Eastern Vermont Friday night. There will be a brief break in the precipitation Saturday morning as shortwave exits to our Northeast, and the Northern stream low pressure system gets a bit hung up to our Northwest. Another vort max will enter Western New York area later in the day on Saturday, and will be the next focus for precipitation going into Saturday night. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 434 AM EDT Thursday...Active weather pattern continues headed into the long term portion of the forecast. Upper level trough and low will slowly creep eastward and upper level low will be centered over Northern New York by early Sunday morning. As pieces of upper level energy rotate around base of upper level trough our region will experience scattered light rain showers. These features are difficult to time this far out, but details will become more clear as we get closer to the weekend. Currently models are indicating that the upper level low in the base of the trough will finally push east of our region Sunday night into Monday. Monday should be the end of the active weather period, with surface and upper level ridging expected from Monday night through early Thursday. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 06z Friday...Precipitation has lifted northeast of the area early this morning...but deep moisture remains over the area. This is resulting in a wide variety of conditions with general MVFR ceilings and visibilities expected through about 14z...but there will be frequent periods before 14z where IFR and LIFR conditions are expected. Eventually after 14z an upper level low pressure system will move in from the west and mixing will take place as southwest winds develop at speeds around 10 knots. This will help lift ceilings and visibilities into the VFR and MVFR categories. At the same time showers will be numerous across the area through about 00z before the upper level low pressure system moves east and precipitation comes to an end with VFR visibilities for the remainder of the period. Ceilings after 00z should also be in the VFR category. Outlook... Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Friday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN. Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA. Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN. Monday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. NO SIG WX. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Evenson NEAR TERM...Evenson SHORT TERM...Neiles LONG TERM...Neiles AVIATION...Evenson is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.