Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 221854 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 254 PM EDT Sun Apr 22 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will dominate regional weather conditions through Tuesday with fair weather and a long awaited return of warmer temperatures. The next chance of rainfall occurs by Wednesday into Thursday of next week as low pressure tracks through the northeast.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 254 PM EDT Sunday...Pleasant and dry weather continues through Monday night as deep layer high pressure builds atop the northeast. Outside some filtered high clouds drifting into the area later Monday night clear skies are expected through the period. Lows seasonably cool once again tonight given ample radiative effects under a dry ambient airmass - mainly 20s to lower 30s. By tomorrow 925-850 mb thermal profiles warm further supporting mid-afternoon highs from the upper 50s to lower 60s in the mountains and lower to mid 60s in valley locations. Winds should trend light southerly over time as the center of the surface high edges east so just an outstanding spring day to start the work week. Fair and dry weather continues for Monday night under continued light south/southwesterly flow. A little more variability is expected in overnight temperatures with eventual readings hinging heavily on the degree to which the nocturnal boundary layer remains mixed. For now have offered in the upper 30s to lower 40s in the St. Lawrence and Champlain Valleys with values ranging through the 30s elsewhere.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 233 PM EDT Sunday...Well our nice period of weather will quickly come to an end on Weds with anticipated widespread rain event and cooler temperatures. However still expecting increasing mid/upper level clouds late Tuesday with temperatures climbing well into the 60s on developing south winds. The combination of mid/upper level ridge overhead and deep dry layer in place especially thru 18z should produce plenty of sun in the morning on Tuesday. Progged 850mb temps near 5c with good mixing and adding 15c gets btv around 20c for a high on Tuesday. Thinking near 60f slk/nek to near 70f cpv...with slightly cooler values south because of clouds developing. Tuesday will stay dry as leading edge of precip will fall as virga due to very dry low levels. By Weds...southern stream short wave energy and associated deep moisture overspread our cwa from south to north. PWS surge near 1.0 as 1008mb low pres tracks from VA beach at 09z Weds to Portland Maine by 06z Thurs with pres near 1000mb. This track combined with some northern stream short wave energy will produce a widespread rainfall across our on Weds into Thursday. Given the available moisture and forcing and favorable track of sfc low pres...thinking qpf will range between 0.50 and 1.0 by Thurs. Temps will struggle on weds with clouds/precip...thinking heaviest precip arrives toward 18z...with highs only in the mid 40s to lower/mid 50s. Will trend pops toward 100% on Weds, based on high confidence it will rain and measure by 00z Thurs. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 233 PM EDT Sunday...An active period of weather is expected as mid/upper level trof redevelops across the Great Lakes into the NE CONUS. This general synoptic scale setup will support above normal precip and below normal temps for days 4 thru 7. Closed 5h and 7h circulation slowly lifts toward northern New England by 12z Thurs...as moderate low level cold air advection develops on brisk 850mb winds of 30 to 40 knots. This helps to cool 925mb to 850mb thermal profiles below 0c by 06z Thurs dacks and 12z northern/central Green Mountains with favorable 1000 to 700mb moisture. Soundings show freezing levels dropping to near 2000 feet by 12z Thursday...supporting some snow and potential accumulations in above 1800 feet on Thurs morning. Best chance for a wet snow accumulation would be northern Dacks and from Mt Mansfield to Jay Peak in the central/northern Greens. Otherwise...a cold rain continues for the valleys with lows on Thurs Morning in the mid 30s to lower 40s. Mid/upper level trof and associated surface low pres lifts toward northern Maine by 00z with quickly drying profiles aft 18z. Thinking clouds/precip start the morning...with some sun and warming temps in the aftn...based on latest trends. Late week into next weekend uncertainty increases with magnitude of mid/upper level trof and potential of another area of low pres impacting our fa. GFS/ECMWF differ on depth of mid/upper level trof across the Ohio Valley and track of low pres across the eastern conus. GFS is stronger and shows a more phased northern/southern stream with developing low pres...supporting another round of widespread rainfall late Friday into Saturday. Meanwhile...ecmwf shows an unphased system with weaker sfc development and scattered precip potential, along with slightly warmer thermal profiles. Have continued to mention high chc pops for Friday into next weekend with highs mid 40s to mid 50s and lows generally in the upper 30s to mid 40s depending upon elevation. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Through 18Z Monday...VFR/SKC through the forecast period with no precipitation or restrictions to visibility expected. Winds north to northwesterly at 6 to 10 kts with occasional gusts to 18 kts at VT terminals through 00Z before trending light overnight. After 12Z Monday light south/southwesterly flow around 5 kts expected at most terminals. Outlook... Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Definite SHRA. Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Likely SHRA. Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...JMG SHORT TERM...Taber LONG TERM...Taber AVIATION...JMG

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