Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 211742 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 142 PM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Quiet weather returns to the North Country as high pressure builds in. Temperatures remain below normal over the weekend but a warming trend will lead to near to slightly above normal temperatures mid week. Expect plentiful sunshine through the middle of the workweek before rain returns to the region Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 942 AM EDT Saturday...Going forecast remains in overall good shape. With wall to wall late April sunshine in most areas temperatures are climbing quickly, especially in snow-free areas and are already nearing prior forecast highs in a few spots. This required a slight upward adjustment to maximum values by 2-3 degrees while maintaining overall spatial variability shown in the prior forecast. I also lowered surface dewpoints slightly based off current observational trends and the expectation that near-surface lapse rates will trend superadiabatic in the lower few hundred meters by this afternoon. Blended MET and LAMP MOS output served as a good proxy for these small changes. Have a great day. Prior discussion... Latest WV/IR satellite still shows a pocket of cloud cover holding on over the North Country. That has kept temps from dropping that quickly this evening and so lows will only fall into the upper 20s to low 30s for most the area. By daybreak the clouds should begin to deteriorate as high pressure and dry air builds in. Expect mostly clear skies for the region with some partly clouds skies holding on over the Northeast Kingdom. The warm air wont quite reach the area today so I anticipate another below normal day with highs in the mid to upper 40s. High pressure will continue to build into the region and winds this evening will decouple allowing for radiational cooling to take place under mostly clear skies. Expect chilly conditions in the typical colder locations of the Northeast Kingdom and parts of the Adirondacks. Sunday looks to be a wonderful day as high pressure dominates and we should reach upper 40s to low 50s across the North Country under full sun. Light northwesterly winds will prevail winds with relative humidities dropping into the 30% range. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 400 AM EDT Saturday...Deep-layer ridge building ewd from the Great Lakes region will bring long-awaited pleasant spring conditions Sunday night thru Tuesday. Dry air mass and mostly clear skies will result in large diurnal ranges. Looking for lows in the 20s to lower 30s Sunday night...warming to the upr 50s to lower 60s Monday afternoon. Should see light S-SW winds developing by Monday afternoon. Will see lows mainly in the 30s Monday night. Temperatures warm into the low-mid 60s for Tuesday, with continued air mass modification and S-SW return flow of 5-10 mph as high pressure departs east and southeast of New England. This will be the first 60+ degree temps at the Burlington International Airport (BTV) since 2/21 (69F). PoPs NIL thru the short-term period. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 400 AM EDT Saturday...Will begin to see increasing clouds Tuesday night from SW-NE associated with a potential phasing of southern and northern stream shortwave troughs across the Upper Ohio Valley. The 00Z GFS and 00Z ECMWF - unsurprisingly for a potential phasing scenario - differ significantly on potential details and timing of precipitation Wed- Friday. The 00Z GFS suggests light precipitation on Wednesday, and again Friday. The 00Z ECMWF suggest a more phased soln with a consolidated coastal low Wednesday into Thursday, with drier weather for Friday. Overall predictability of the pattern is considered lower than normal. At this point, have indicated low likely PoPs (50- 60%) for Wed/Wed night, followed by chance PoPs (30-40%) Thu-Fri for periods of rain showers. Not expecting any heavy precipitation at this time. Abundant clouds and potential precipitation should bring slightly cooler temperatures, with highs mainly in the mid-upr 50s for Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday, and lows in the upr 30s-mid 40s. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Through 18Z Sunday...VFR through the forecast period. Scattered fair wx clouds with bases from 050-080 AGL through 00Z, otherwise SKC with no precipitation or restrictions to visibility expected. Winds west to northwest 8-12 kts with occasional gusts from 15 to 20 knots through 23Z, abating to light and variable overnight, then light west/northwesterly once again after 14Z Sunday. Outlook... Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely SHRA. Wednesday Night: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA. Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Deal NEAR TERM...Deal/JMG SHORT TERM...Banacos LONG TERM...Banacos AVIATION...JMG

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