Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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616 FXUS61 KBTV 171507 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1107 AM EDT Sat Mar 17 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure is in store this weekend, but seasonally cold weather and gusty winds will continue, especially on Saturday. Some scattered snow showers will be possible Saturday morning, mainly in the northern mountains which would be the only precipitation on an otherwise dry weekend. The jury is still out on a potential low pressure system that may have the makings of the fourth nor`easter that New England has seen in the last few weeks with current trends keeping the system largely south of the area for now. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 1053 AM EDT Saturday...Tweaked temperatures a bit to better reflect the upstream cold air moving in behind a cold front. The upstream air mass is cold enough to offset morning solar heating and allow temperatures to remain constant or drop a few degrees this morning before raising a few degrees this afternoon during peak heating. Have also blended some HiRes winds in to the near term forecast to better capture the timing/strength of the increased winds and gusts along and behind the frontal passage. Overall, still on track for a blustery cold day more reminiscent of January or February than late March. In addition, increasing instability with the cold push is allowing for some isolated quick hitting snow showers over the northern Adirondacks. Have also updated PoP grids to include these showers, using hires models to capture their evolution as the triggering upper wave pushes south and east through the early afternoon. Previous discussion...While a most of the weekend will be dominated by high pressure, Saturday morning starts with strong upper shortwave trough that digs into the region at daybreak and moves quickly south of the CWA by mid afternoon. With this a very cold airmass for this time of year moves in with temperatures 10 to 15 degrees below normal. Along with this colder air a chance for snow showers to Saturday morning. While across the northern half of the CWA, SBCAPE of 100-150 J/kg look possible as indicated by 00z NAM-12km and model soundings suggest convective depths extending up close to 700mb with trough passage, QPF looks to be less than 0.15" and will limit widespread snow squall activity. Though some flurries or a quick snow shower is possible during the morning hours Saturday, especially across northern VT. A possible snow squall isn`t completely ruled out and will continued to monitored with any potential increased moisture coming out of Canada this morning. A strong jet will accompany the shortwave as well, and with decent mixing expect gusty winds will continue much the day Saturday. Drier air works in Saturday afternoon, bringing the shower potential to an end and even allowing for some much missed sunshine by late in the day. However, with gusty winds and temperatures only in the teens and 20s, it will definitely be a cold day more reminiscent of January in spite of any sunshine. Skies will clear and winds lessen overnight Saturday night as high pressure builds across the region, and this combined with nice fresh snowpack will make for a very cold night indeed. Lows drop down into the single digits areawide, with negative numbers likely in the Northeast Kingdom and Adirondacks. Even with the winds decreasing, look for higher elevations to see wind chills in the negative teens. Cold temperatures and northerly flow and dry conditions will continue on Sunday with less cloud cover than Saturday. Look for high temperatures to be not much better than Saturday with the valleys only reaching the low 20s and other locations in the teens.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 352 AM EDT Saturday...Quiet and unseasonably cold weather is expected in the short term period. Split flow with prevail across North America with our area under the influence of the cold northern stream. N-NW flow at all levels will ensure a cold dry flow as Canadian high pressure moves slowly toward the North Country Sunday night. Hedged blended guidance low temperatures down a bit below zero by Mon am in northern NY and single digits above elsewhere under mostly clear skies. Brisk NW flow aloft and potential for some upslope clouds may limit radiational cooling from reaching its full potential despite deep snow cover across the region. Cold northerly flow continues on Monday with 925 mb temps maybe reaching -10 deg C keeping us in the 20s for high temperatures under partly cloudy skies. Should be another fairly cold night Monday night with light winds, but again some chance of clouds around. Lows mainly in the single digits. For this time of year we should be seeing high temperatures in the lower 40s and low temperatures in the mid 20s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 352 AM EDT Saturday...It looks like mainly dry and unseasonably cold weather will continue through the long term period as high pressure over Canada continues to provide a northerly flow to the region though it will moderate slightly as we go through the week. Model consensus supports this solution and keeps a nor`easter south and east of our area but we`ll still keep an eye on it. Otherwise, despite a weak upper level trof cold, dry weather should dominate though I can`t rule out a flurry or snow shower in the long term. High temps in the 20s Tue will slowly moderate into the 30s by Friday. Similarly, low temps in the single digits Tuesday morning will moderate into the teens and lower 20s by the end of the week. Again these temps are still well below the normals of low 40s for highs and mid 20s for lows at BTV. && .AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 00Z Sunday...VFR conditions expected through the period. Winds will be gusty through 00Z period across the CWA out of the northwest with gusts in the 20-25 knot range. Skies will remain largely VFR on Saturday but a quick shot of snow is possible during the late morning/early afternoon hours as a boundary pushes through the state with decent low level instability. Brief MVFR or IFR conditions could be seen at KSLK/KPBG/KMPV/KBTV as these convective snow showers push through. Conditions will quickly trend back to VFR following snow showers as drier air quickly filters in across the North Country. Outlook... Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Verasamy NEAR TERM...RSD/Verasamy SHORT TERM...Sisson LONG TERM...Sisson AVIATION...Verasamy is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.