Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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244 FXUS61 KBTV 221854 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 254 PM EDT Tue May 22 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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Showers associated with weak low pressure moving across the region will end this evening with high pressure building in after midnight. A cold front will cross the area Wednesday with a few additional showers or perhaps an isolated thunderstorm across northern counties. Behind this front, fair and seasonably warm weather is expected through the remainder of the work week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 253 PM EDT Tuesday...Weak surface low pressure located over the eastern Great Lakes this afternoon will continue to provide the North Country with periods of showers this afternoon and evening before shifting east. Main batch of precipitation is pushing through central and eastern area currently, and expect there to be a brief break later this afternoon into the early evening before additional showers develop around sunset across northern New York and track eastward through Vermont through midnight. After midnight, high pressure noses into the area with gradual clearing expected by sunrise. With mild overnight temps in the 50s, mainly light winds and today`s rainfall, areas of fog are a good bet, especially in the climo favored river valleys. For Wednesday, mainly dry conditions are expected with mostly clear skies in the morning giving way to increasing cumulus clouds across central and northern areas as a well defined cold front drops southward through the region. As mentioned by previous forecasts, we`ll be on the back side of this front and parent upper trough with the best moisture and forcing generally off to our northeast. Guidance continues to hint at some isolated to widely scattered shower activity developing during peak heating mainly across northern Vermont, with some weak instability around supporting the idea of perhaps an isolated thunderstorm as well. Continued this idea from previous forecasts with any activity dissipating rapidly with the loss of insolational heating after sunset. In addition, steep low level lapse rates will promote good mixing from aloft with winds becoming brisk out of the northwest at 15-25 mph in the afternoon. After a normal to slightly cool Tuesday, Wednesdays highs will be back above normal in the mid/upper 70s. A clear, quiet and cool night is on tap for Wednesday night with high pressure centering over the region. Low confidence on fog overnight despite the clearing skies as boundary level winds look strong enough to inhibit development. Lows will run mainly in the 40s, with a few spot upper 30s possible in the colder hollows of the Adirondacks and northeast Vermont.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 335 AM EDT Tuesday...The end of the work week will be relatively quiet with no active weather expected. Broad high pressure with anticyclonic flow is expected both Thursday and Friday. The northwesterly winds behind a front on Wednesday will usher in slightly cooler temps so expected highs on Thursday in the upper 60s to low 70s but by Friday morning southerly flow sets up and we`ll see warming temperatures with highs on Friday in the upper 70s to low 80s under partly cloudy skies. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 335 AM EDT Tuesday...As we head into the weekend the prognosis is getting clearer that Saturday will likely be the wetter of the two days. There`s still some discontinuity between the guidance suite but the general idea is that an upper level trough over the Maritimes will drag a frontal system through the North Country. The question is how far south does the boundary go. The GFS stalls the boundary over southern New England while the EC stalls the system along the international border. I`ve leaned with a blend of the new guidance along with much of the previous forecast to trend the chances for rain a little bit lighter on Sunday afternoon and evening as there`s some idea of weak ridging building in. With the continued varying solutions we`ll continue to monitor but confidence isn`t super high one way or another. Coming out of the weekend its much of the same in that models are all over the place largely based on how they handle the system moving in over the weekend. With the GFS dry and the EC wet I`ve offered the idea of slight chance to change pops and will adjust accordingly with newer guidance. && .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 18Z Wednesday...Current VFR will gradually trend to MVFR ceilings from southwest to northeast this afternoon with periods of showers continuing but no restrictions to visibility. MVFR ceilings continue through the overnight with ares of IFR likely, especially across northern New York at KMSS and KSLK. After 12Z, conditions improve quickly to VFR with some diurnal cumulus developing with a chance for isolated showers possible across northeast areas. Outlook... Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Saturday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA. Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lahiff NEAR TERM...Lahiff SHORT TERM...Neiles LONG TERM...Neiles AVIATION...Lahiff

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