Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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181 FXUS61 KBTV 220807 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 407 AM EDT Sun Apr 22 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will lead to quiet weather with long awaited warmer temperatures. Above normal temperatures are expected through the week with highs in the 60`s and lows in the 40`s. The next chance of rainfall occurs by Wednesday into Thursday of next week as low pressure tracks through the northeast. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 151 AM EDT Sunday...High pressure will lead to both the long awaited warmer Springtime temperatures as well as large diurnal swings. The winds overnight have gone calm and temps are dropping rapidly. Expect lows near MOS guidance in the upper 20s to even teens in the Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom. As soon as we see sunlight however anticipate rapid warming across the North Country. 925mb temps in the +4 to +5 support max temps similar to yesterday in the low to mid 50s. Its going to be a blue bird day with plentiful sunshine and mild northwesterly winds. Heading into the evening hours the surface high will be cresting over the region and temps should plummet as radiational cooling takes effect. Boundary layer winds decouple and we will cool rapidly back into the 20s to low 30s again. High clouds should be starting to filter in late overnight so that may temper how cold we get down to. Monday is expected to be another wonderful North Country day as we warm into the mid 60s with light southerly flow and no precip to speak of. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 344 AM EDT Sunday...Deep-layer ridge remains in control Monday night and Tuesday as it shifts east of New England. Monday night should be tranquil with light wind conditions and nil PoPs. Will see overnight lows mainly in the mid 30s to lower 40s. Tuesday should be our warmest day of the stretch, and the warmest day at BTV since we reached 69F way back on 2/21. Generally looking at mid-upr 60s for afternoon highs with light S-SW winds across the region. Should see advancing mid-upr level clouds from southwest-northeast Tuesday afternoon, but anticipate any showers holding off until after sunset. GFS-MOS even indicated a high of 70F at BTV, but based on 850mb temps 4-5C and some increase in clouds during peak heating hrs, went with 68F.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 344 AM EDT Sunday...Diffuse phasing of southern-northern stream shortwave troughs will bring potential for developing rain showers Tuesday night (40-60% PoPs), with periods of rain (70-80% PoPs) on Wednesday and Wed. Night. May see an additional closed mid-upr level low approaching Friday night into Saturday, per 00Z GFS. The 00Z ECMWF has a weaker, open wave toward Saturday with less potential precipitation. Overall predictability of the pattern is considered lower than normal. Best NWP consistency is for overcast conditions and precipitation on Wednesday/Wednesday night, with increasing spread in ops models and ensemble guidance thereafter. Abundant clouds and potential precipitation should bring slightly cooler temperatures, with highs mainly in the mid-upr 50s for Wednesday-Saturday, and lows generally in the upr 30s-mid 40s. Looking at Hydrology...still decent amount of snow in the mountains (99" atop Mt. Mansfield) and upcoming weather will promote snow melt. However, rainfall appears showery with rainfall amounts largely around 1/2 inch for the day 4-7 period. Mountain watersheds will see rises through the week due to the combination of snow melt and rainfall, but all ensemble guidance and climatology suggest more rain is needed for flooding issues. Strongest signals are for the Otter Creek at Center Rutland (CENV1) and the Ausable River (ASFN6) to potentially reach action stage Wed- Thu per NAEFS based simulations. Still worth monitoring future forecasts for any possible changes to rainfall amounts.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Through 12Z Monday...VFR through the forecast period. SKC with no precipitation or restrictions to visibility expected. Winds light and variable overnight, then light west/northwesterly once again after 14Z Sunday the back to calm overnight. Outlook... Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely SHRA. Wednesday Night: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Deal NEAR TERM...Deal SHORT TERM...Banacos LONG TERM...Banacos AVIATION...Deal

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