000
FXUS61 KBTV 120746
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
346 AM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong to possibly damaging wind gusts are expected through this
morning with localized wind gusts up to 55 mph along the western
slopes of the Green and Adirondack Mountains. Additional rain
showers are expected throughout the day with some thunderstorms
possible this afternoon. A cold front will move through the region
this afternoon and evening which will allow for some mountain rain
showers to mix or change to snow tonight and Saturday morning.
Continued shower activity is expected through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 340 AM EDT Friday...Winds have been a bit tricky this morning
as several waves of precipitation have stabilized the boundary layer
and have limited mixing. However, in between these waves of
rainfall, we have seen a little bit of mixing with Malone, NY
already gusting to 49 mph. All guidance hints at a prolonged period
of dry weather moving into the North Country between 3 AM and around
noon. Model forecast soundings show an inverted v structure which
supports good mixing through the morning hours which when coupled
with a 70 knot low level just should produce widespread wind gusts
in excess of 45 mph. The wind advisory was expanded to include
additional locations in Vermont including the northern Champlain
Valley and portions of northern and central Vermont given the dry
slot coinciding with the maximum winds aloft. Within the wind
advisory, wind gusts up to 55 mph are possible with the highest
winds likely to be along the western slopes of the Green and
Adirondack Mountains. Outside of the advisory, wind gust in the 35
to 45 mph are likely through the morning hour.

As winds aloft begin to weaken due to the upper level low
approaching from the west, we will see another round of
precipitation. This time, however, thunderstorms looks possible as
temperatures today are expected to rise into the mid 60s to near 70
degrees. Model soundings and CAMs are showing CAPE values
approaching 500 J/kg ahead of this afternoon round of
showers/thunderstorms which should be more than enough to help
produce some locally strong storms. Severe storms look unlikely as
shear values weaken drastically as the upper level low moves
overhead but some weakly organized storms seem possible at this
time. Some brief additional wind gusts in excess of 40 mph and a
burst of heavy rain will be possible with any thunderstorms this
afternoon. We will continue to monitor the potential threat for
localized areal/river flooding given saturated grounds and elevated
river levels but currently no rivers are forecast to reach flood
stage. See the hydrology discussion below for more details on the
possible flood threat.

A continuation of rain showers will likely continue through the
overnight hours and through much of Saturday, although the
thunderstorm potential will become NIL following sunset tonight.
Temperatures will begin to cool quickly following a cold front
passage this afternoon which will allow for some mountain rain
showers to mix or change over to snow showers tonight into Saturday
morning. Additional rainfall totals will be minimal on Saturday as
showers will be widely scattered and generally light which should
limit any additional flood concerns going forward.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 340 AM EDT Friday...Wrap around showers will persist into
Saturday night as the upper trough axis shifts east and our flow
turns toward the northwest. Snow levels will lower enough that the
higher terrain could pick up some light accumulation. Drier air
briefly works into the area early Sunday, but additional showers are
expected to redevelop Sunday afternoon as another shortwave rotates
around the main low centered to our north. This activity will
quickly exit to our south and east Sunday night. Overall, additional
liquid precipitation amounts should be limited to a quarter of an
inch or less. Sunday`s highs will range from the upper 40s to mid
50s, though some places could be a bit warmer if clouds hold off
longer than currently anticipated. Saturday night`s temperatures
will be in the low 30s to around 40F, with Sunday night remaining a
few degrees warmer.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 340 AM EDT Friday...Overall expect the weather pattern to stay
fairly unsettled through much of next week. The persistent upper low
centered to our north will push one last shortwave/surface frontal
boundary through the region Monday which may allow a few showers to
develop, mainly across the north. Brief ridging will bring drier
weather Tuesday into Wednesday. This will be short-lived however as
another upper low pivots across the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest,
ushering moisture back into the Northeast CONUS. We`ll likely get
rounds of showers moving through our area Wednesday and Thursday as
shortwaves rotate around this approaching low, but exact
timing/placement of precipitation is hard to pinpoint this far out.
We will see a warming trend through the period as south/southwest
flow sets up ahead of the low; highs in the 50s on Monday will warm
into the upper 50s to mid 60s by mid week.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 06Z Saturday...Winds are being a little slow to ramp up
early this morning as a round of rainfall has briefly stabilized
to low levels. Winds will ramp up quickly over the next few
hours with terminals gusting to 30 to 40 knots through 18Z
before winds begin to slowly abate through the remainder of the
forecast period. The rain showers currently moving through are
having little to no impact on flight conditions with
visibilities remaining well above 6 statue miles but some
lingering MVFR conditions do persist at a few terminals. As the
dry slot moves overhead this morning, we should see conditions
improve to VFR at all sites before conditions deteriorate after
18Z as a slug of moderate to even heavy rain is expected to
impact most terminals. A few thunderstorms cannot be ruled out
this afternoon so we will be watching that closely. The wind
shear will be peaking over the next few hours with the low level
jet topping out at 70 knots over KSLK. By 16Z wind shear will
diminish below our threshold for TAF inclusion but it seems like
a lot of turbulence is to be expected over our airspace
throughout the day.

Outlook...

Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Definite SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance
SHRA, Chance SHSN.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Well above normal temperatures will continue today which will
allow for significant snow melt. In addition, rain showers with
the possibility of a few thunderstorms will be possible this
afternoon. Highest rainfall amounts will favor southern
portions of the Adirondacks and south-central Vermont, where
storm total rain will be between about 0.50-1.25" The remaining
snow pack is mainly above 2000 foot elevation. There`s not much
left to melt below 2000 ft, but the higher summits still have
plenty of snow, and we lost about 0.50-1.00" of snow water
equivalent in the existing pack last night. Saturated soils
will likely result in more run-off into rivers. Otter Creek at
Center Rutland (CENV1) and the East Branch of the Ausable at
Ausable Forks (ASFN6) are currently forecast to remain in their
banks. Any additional snowmelt or rainfall beyond present
forecast expectations could send these rivers into minor
flooding and other main stem rivers towards bankfull. Beyond
river flooding, several rounds of rain and snowmelt could result
in ponding and localized flooding along low-lying farm fields.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KSLK and KPBG are experiencing comms issues. Dataflow may be
sporadic.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Wind Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for VTZ002-003-005-
     006-008-016>019.
NY...Wind Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for NYZ028>031.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Clay
NEAR TERM...Clay
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...Clay
HYDROLOGY...Clay
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV