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267
FXUS61 KBTV 300732
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
332 AM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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After isolated to scattered showers with a lower probability of a
thunderstorm this morning, shower chances increase with additional
chances of thunderstorms  as a relative cold front sweeps through
the North Country this afternoon and early evening. Periods of
moderate rain are expected which could lead to ponding in poor
drainage areas and minor field flooding. Weaker troughs will bring
additional chances of showers later this week, but overall
conditions will be calmer with mild temperatures.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 329 AM EDT Tuesday...Early morning thunderstorm chances have
increased with a ribbon of elevated instability along a relative
warm front moving through the Mohawk Valley into portions of the
Adirondacks and southern Vermont. CAMs may be a little underdone,
but do show weakening of instability towards the morning hours.
Still, can`t completely rule out a rare thunderstorm especially in
the Adirondacks and across southern Vermont through sunrise.
Currently, best chances are in the Star Lake/Tupper Lake areas and
just across the St Lawrence River in Canada. This will track
eastward-northeastward while the main line of convection will
continue in the Mohawk Valley through Bennington County, Vermont.
Portions of Rutland County may see a stray thunderstorm 6-8am, but
stability is definitely higher north of this feature right now.

By late morning, showers will become increasingly isolated with the
North Country mainly in the warm sector of this weaker variety
system. Still high PWATs will be streaming across the region
supporting moderate to briefly heavy rain showers for the afternoon.
Convective chances will generally be isolated and tied to the front
as it tracks west to east, but any clearing will aid in
destabilizing low levels. While expected to be mostly cloudy, there
are enough cloud breaks in satellite imagery to suggest some areas
could conditionally warm enough to boost low level CAPE enough for
some heavy rainers and marginally stronger thunderstorms. Therefore,
have included a mention of small hail and potential for heavy rain
during max heating hours with any cells just ahead of the front -
roughly 2-7PM across northern New York and Western/Central Vermont.

Precipitation chances diminish behind the front tonight and
Wednesday, but kept some chances of showers with relatively mild
temperatures and upslope flow continuing. Temperatures will range
from the 40s overnight into the upper 50s/low-mid 60s for Wednesday.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 329 AM EDT Tuesday...An weak shortwave drops down into the
region from Canada on Wednesday night into Thursday, leading to some
showers, particularly in northern areas. Overall, QPF should be
minimal with under a tenth of an inch expected. The showers will
move out in the afternoon and there should at least be a little
clearing. 925 mb temperatures generally will be between 8-12 celsius
and as the showers move out, the boundary layer should eventually
mix that high. This would support highs in the 60s to possibly lower
70s. There should be a decent north to south temperature gradient as
well as there will be lower 925 mb temperatures and more
showers/clouds to the north.
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&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 329 AM EDT Tuesday...Brief ridging builds in on Friday, leading
to dry weather and a few breaks in the clouds. The ridge looks to
break down on Saturday as an occluded front makes its way into the
region and brings some rain. There is still high model uncertainty
with the details of its passage so kept PoPs mostly chance for now.
Right now, the most likely scenario looks to be the front moving
slowly across the region and bringing only some scattered showers on
Saturday. Overall, the front should be falling apart as it moves
through and the QPF looks quite unimpressive, with less than a third
of ensemble members even bringing a quarter inch of rain to any part
of the region. A few members are suggesting that a low will develop
along the front and enhance the rainfall but those solutions
currently look to be the outliers. The trailing cold front looks to
move through around Monday and it may bring a few more showers.
Despite several fronts moving through during the time period,
temperatures look to be relatively consistent. Highs should
generally be in the 60s to around 70 while lows should generally be
in the 40s and 50s.
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&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Through 07Z Wednesday...Isolated thunderstorms are tracking down
the St Lawrence river through 815Z with TSRA at MSS being
reported. Stability will increase behind these storms with the
next chances for MSS mainly late morning through the afternoon
hrs.

Previous discussion...VFR conditions will degrade through the
forecast period. Through 12Z, shower chances are generally too
isolated to include at terminals, but its possible for a light
shower especially at MSS, PBG, SLK, EFK. Also carrying about a
10% chance of a thunderstorm overnight in the Adirondacks with
best chances over the Mohawk Valley of northern New York
tracking south of most terminals. Could see flashes in the sky
from SLK, but location and timing place cells south of the
terminal. RUT may be the next terminal with a chance of a rumble
around 12Z if cells can hold together. Models track cells
through southern Essex County of New York and weaken them by the
time they reach RUT, but were underdone earlier, so still a
possibility. Otherwise, CIGs/VIS will be tied to showers and
generally lowering through the period, MVFR chances up by 12-18Z
ahead and in the cold front, IFR chances up 22-06Z just behind
the front.


Outlook...

Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
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&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Boyd
NEAR TERM...Boyd
SHORT TERM...Myskowski
LONG TERM...Myskowski
AVIATION...Boyd