Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 260515 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 115 AM EDT Sat May 26 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Unsettled weather is expected for the Memorial Day Weekend as a cold front moves slowly southward out of Canada later tonight and Saturday. This will allow showers to move across the area...especially over northern New York and the northern half of Vermont. For Saturday afternoon...the threat of thunderstorms will exist over central and southern Vermont and parts of the northern Adirondacks in New York. Cooler and drier weather moves into Vermont on Sunday...but there will still be a threat of showers and thunderstorms across portions of northern New York as an upper level trough of low pressure moves toward the region. This feature will move across the area on Memorial Day and will continue to bring a chance of showers to the entire North Country. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
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As of 110 AM EDT Saturday...Have only made slight adjustments early this morning to match the latest satellite and radar trends. The bulk of the shower activity from last evening has dissipated, though still watching a bit of steadier activity across portions of northern NY/VT. Cloud bases remain generally 6-8kft, and dry sub-cloud layer is generating some evaporative cooling and associated wind gusts locally up to 25kts. Overall expect the downward trend in shower coverage to continue through daybreak. Lows generally expected in the upper 50s to lower 60s across the North Country with generally S-SW winds AOB 10kts. Previous Discussion...Mid-level clouds continue to move across the area this afternoon along with a few sprinkles. Eventually we will see better chances for showers and possibly a thunderstorm across the northern tier of our area as upstream convection over southeast Ontario moves east-southeast into the region tonight. Main frontal system remains back up across southern Quebec Province and this feature will not move down into our area until Saturday. It looks like surface front will push just south of a Massena to White River Junction line Saturday afternoon and sufficient instability should develop along and south of this boundary for a better chance of showers and possibly some thunderstorms. Of note is the 850 millibar front is still up near the Canadian Border and it appears it will be a focus for additional showers as well. So much of the forecast area will have a chance for precipitation. Fronts weaken Saturday night and any precipitation will weaken in intensity and push eastward as flow aloft becomes more westerly with time. Strong push of cooler air will take place late Saturday night across Vermont as high pressure bring a more maritime air mass into the region. Highs on Saturday will range from around 70 near the Canadian border to the lower 80s over southern areas south of the front. Lows Saturday night will range in the upper 40s to upper 50s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /2 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 321 PM EDT Friday...As mentioned in the near term maritime air mass moves into the region on Sunday...especially over Vermont and relative dry weather is expected for the day. Cooler temperatures will exist with highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s. A different story will take place over northern New York as a more noticeable front becomes established out across the Saint Lawrence Valley. Highs in northern New York will be in the 70s to lower 80s and there will be a better chance of showers and thunderstorms out across the Saint Lawrence Valley in the afternoon. Higher precipitable water values in this area will enhance the potential for heavy downpours with any of the showers or storms. The upstream upper trough will gradually move into the region Sunday night and while the threat of thunder will decrease...sufficient dynamic support will exist for showers to move eastward across the entire area late Sunday night. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 321 PM EDT Friday...At this time, not much has changed from the previous forecasts. Overall, conditions look to be unsettled Monday with above normal temperatures expected through the period. High pressure dominates mid-week before more active weather returns towards the end of the period...An upper-level shortwave and associated warm front will push north during the daytime hours on Monday. Showers are expected throughout the day before the main front moves south Monday night. A chance of thunder exists overnight Monday so have mentioned in grids but the bulk of the forcing and instability should stay to our north. Tuesday, skies will clear throughout the day as dry air pushes south and high pressure builds in. Tuesday night lows look to be the coldest of the period with clear and calm conditions promoting near-normal temperatures in the mid 40s to around 50. Wednesday looks to be sunny and summer-like with temperatures warming into the upper 70s. Thursday will remain dry, but warm even as clouds increase with temperatures pushing low 80s for much of the area. The quiet stretch of weather will become more active Friday as newly named subtropical storm Alberto makes its way north. Models are still in good agreement with tropical moisture moving northward, but are uncertain on exact location of low and associated rainfall. Model`s have done a flip-flop on position of heaviest precip with GFS now keeping bulk just to our south over southern New England and ECMWF bringing low pressure up the Ohio River valley with heavier rain over western NY and international border...with such uncertainty it certainly bears watching. && .AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Through 06Z Sunday...Generally expect VFR conditions throughout the night with shower coverage decreasing through daybreak. Winds generally SW around 5 kt overnight. However, with dry sub- cloud layer, will see some gusty showers at times thru 09Z with winds briefly west 15G25KTS with evaporative cooling effects ongoing. Generally carried VCSH for the balance of the overnight in the TAFs with a chance of showers. Exception was KSLK where steadier showers have developed; these may briefly lower visibility and ceilings through 09z Saturday. Will see a backdoor cold front approach from the north to northeast late morning into the afternoon hours on Saturday. This will bring a northerly wind shift, and locally NELY winds for MSS/PBG/SLK during Saturday afternoon. Will also see another round of prevailing rain showers and developing MVFR ceilings following FROPA. Can`t rule out isold to scattered thunderstorms across the Adirondacks into s-central VT south of the frontal bndry during the peak afternoon heating hours on Saturday. We`ll continue to monitor that threat for the TAF locations as we head into Saturday and mesoscale details become more clear. Outlook... Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Memorial Day: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Evenson NEAR TERM...Evenson/Hastings SHORT TERM...Evenson LONG TERM...LaRocca/Neiles AVIATION...Banacos/Hastings

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