Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 220214 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1014 PM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will dominate regional weather conditions through Tuesday with fair weather and a long awaited return of warmer weather. The next chance of rainfall occurs by Wednesday into Thursday of next week as low pressure tracks through the northeast. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 1012 PM EDT Saturday...The forecast remains on track this evening and no significant adjustments were needed with this update. Previous discussion...Our long-awaited stretch of milder spring weather has finally arrived this afternoon as expansive high pressure builds across the northeast with ample sunshine. Afternoon temperatures have climbed quite nicely, reaching 54F here at KBTV as of mid-afternoon as low level lapse rates have trended superadiabatic in the lower few hundred meters. This has also fostered some modestly gusty west to northwest winds to 25 mph, especially across the eastern half of the forecast area as the boundary layer has deepened to approximately 850 mb. For tonight through Sunday night fair and dry weather will continue as the center of the surface high drifts overhead. Expect wider than normal diurnal temperature ranges as the dry nature of the airmass fosters good radiational cooling at night and deep boundary layer mixing during the afternoon. As such, blended MOS-based guidance was leaned upon quite heavily to govern daily spreads offering lows mainly in the 20s for both nights with customary variability as the Champlain Valley holds a tad milder and portions of the Adirondacks fall into the upper teens. For Sunday afternoon this predicated raising inherited maximum values by some 5 to 7 degrees as readings top out in the upper 40s to lower 50s in the mountains, and ranging through the 50s in the valleys. Winds to remain west to northwest, but a little less gusty than today. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 341 PM EDT Saturday...Ridging aloft building as surface high pressure remains across fa and plenty of sunshine. 850mb temps 3-4C and 925mb temps 8-9C thus looking at L-M60s possible for Monday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 341 PM EDT Saturday...Upper and surface ridging beginning to slide east on Tuesday with SSW flow and increase in high-mid level moisture, thus increasing clouds. 850mb temps 4C and 925mb temps 9-11C thus looking at M60s perhaps even some U60s if cloud cover is slower to advance. By Tuesday night-Wednesday potential weak, diffuse phasing of northern-southern stream shortwave troughs across the Upper Ohio Valley. Given it`s weak and diffuse, the details in timing of precipitation Wed-Friday. Previous shift summarized this period well. The GFS suggests light precipitation on Wednesday, and again Friday. The ECMWF suggest a more phased soln with a consolidated coastal low Wednesday into Thursday, with drier weather for Friday. Overall predictability of the pattern is considered lower than normal. At this point, have indicated low likely PoPs (50- 60%) for Wed/Wed night, followed by chance PoPs (30-40%) Thu-Fri for periods of rain showers. Not expecting any heavy precipitation at this time. Abundant clouds and potential precipitation should bring slightly cooler temperatures, with highs mainly in the mid-upr 50s for Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday, and lows in the upr 30s-mid 40s. Potential greater phasing on Sat, yet details still differ should mean Saturday is a wetter day than Friday with surface low pressure largely elongated across the northeast. Looking at Hydro...still decent amount of snow in the mountains and upcoming weather will promote snow melt, especially Monday-Tuesday. However, rainfall seems showery with rainfall amounts largely around 1/2 inch for the next 7 days. Mountain watersheds will see rises through the week due to the combination of snow melt and rainfall but all ensemble guidance and climatology suggest more rain is needed for any issues. Still worth looking at future forecasts for any possible changes to rainfall amounts. && .AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Through 00Z Monday...VFR through the forecast period. SKC with no precipitation or restrictions to visibility expected. Winds light and variable overnight, then light west/northwesterly once again after 14Z Sunday. Outlook... Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Wednesday: MVFR. Likely SHRA. Wednesday Night: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...Hastings/JMG SHORT TERM...SLW LONG TERM...SLW AVIATION...Hastings/JMG

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