Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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235 FXUS61 KBTV 262251 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 651 PM EDT Sat May 26 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A backdoor cold front will drop south of the North Country this evening as high pressure builds into northern Vermont overnight. This will result in cooler temperatures and mainly dry conditions overnight into Sunday with lows mainly in the mid 40s to upper 50s and highs mid 60s to mid 70s on Sunday. A few showers with a rumble of thunder is possible across the Saint Lawrence Valley on Sunday afternoon. A few additional showers are possible on Monday with temperatures mainly in the 70s. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 651 PM EDT Saturday...The forecast is looking good at the moment. Made a few adjustments to match the latest observations, as well as to remove any mention of thunder and to lower rain chances since most of the shower activity is on the decline and moving out of the area. Previous Discussion... Water vapor shows confluent northwest flow aloft across the ne conus with subsidence/dry air building toward our northern cwa. meanwhile...surface analysis shows boundary over southern VT with building 1027mb high pres over northern Maine. This high pres combined with weakening sfc boundary will create a brisk 925mb to 850mb east/southeast flow tonight into Sunday across our central/eastern cwa. This flow will help to advect in cooler/maritime airmass with low clouds possible, especially east of the greens tonight into Sunday. Some patchy drizzle/br is possible in the higher trrn. Otherwise...a widespread in temps are anticipated with lows from the mid 40s with some clearing nek to upper 50s cpv/southern slv. Developing southeast winds of 10 to 20 mph with localized gusts to 25 mph likely along the western slopes and parts of the eastern cpv toward morning. Sunday...The forecast challenge will be convective potential across the Saint Lawrence Valley as guidance is still not in good agreement with regards to heating/instability. The combination of sfc convergence and weak embedded 5h vort in the flow aloft will interact with some cape of 500 to 1000 j/kg over the slv to help generate showers/isolated storms. Once again the lack of forcing and instability will limit the areal coverage/intensity of convection on Sunday. NAM shows northeast flow down the slv with temps only in the 60s, while GFS indicates southwest flow developing with some breaks in the overcast, helping to warm/destabilize atmosphere. We will continue to mention chc pops with schc for thunder on Sunday. Temps will range from the mid/upper 60s eastern VT to mid 70s southern SLV near Edwards. Thinking BTV starts near 60F at 7 AM and warms to near 70F by 2 PM on Sunday with southwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 20 possible. Expect dry conditions from the eastern dacks into the cpv and all of vt on Sunday. Sunday Night...surface analysis continues to show a cold air damming signature with high pres located over northern Maine. This combined with an inverted sfc boundary/warm front over the slv with some energy aloft will mention schc pops west. Overall, expecting most areas to be dry with the lack of forcing aloft and limited moisture. Temps will be tricky with some clouds around, but lows generally in the mid 40s east to 60f west.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 336 PM EDT Saturday...Memorial Day looks to be quite on the unsettled side as scattered showers and thunderstorms look likely. On Monday, there will be a series of two shortwaves that will pass across the international border of Northern Vermont with both of these systems tracking across the region around peak heating (18Z to 00Z). Temperatures will warm into the mid 70s to lower 80s during the early afternoon hours which will help develop anywhere between 500 J/kg to 1000 J/kg of CAPE. This CAPE combined with upper level support from the shortwaves will help produce the aforementioned scattered showers and thunderstorms. The one limiting factor will be a surface boundary that will remain north and west of the North Country. This feature would help pool moisture across the region but with it being too far north and west, it looks looks like the overall coverage of shower/t-storm activity will likely be limited meaning that not everywhere will see precipitation on Monday. There is also a small chance of a severe thunderstorm on Monday, mainly across northern VT and northern NY, as those locations should maximize moisture, lift and instability. The shower and thunderstorm activity will taper off Monday night as a stout upper level ridge will build across the area following the second shortwave. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 336 PM EDT Saturday...Tuesday through Thursday look like fantastic days across the North Country. If you find yourself hanging around following the marathon this weekend, you will be treated to sunny skies with high temperatures in the mid 70s on Tuesday and warming into the upper 70s to mid 80s by Thursday. Conditions will begin to deteriorate on Friday as the remnants of subtropical storm Alberto will begin to influence our region. Throughout the upcoming week, the remnants will track across the Mississippi River Valley and then take a turn NE toward Ohio and move toward the North Country on Friday. While models continue to vary on the overall track, there is definitely a common trend. All deterministic and ensemble means show the remnants impacting us during the weekend at some point. The big question is to how organized the precipitation associated with this will be. There won`t be any super impressive boundaries or anything but it looks like the moisture will latch onto a cold front and move across the North Country over the weekend. With PWAT values likely between 1.5 and 2.0 inches, it wouldn`t be surprising to see some areas receive some locally heavy rainfall. However, with the lack of organization by the time it reaches us, it doesn`t look like a widespread heavy rainfall at the moment. This does bare watching over the next week and we will continue to know more with each subsequent model run. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Through 18Z Sunday...Forecast aviation challenge will be cigs and timing of precip associated with boundary dropping across our taf sites this aftn. Thinking a period of mvfr cigs are possible between 18z-21z at PBG/BTV/MPV with brief ifr cigs possible based on upstream conditions at FSO. Otherwise, a 30 minute to 1 hour window of rain showers with a few rumbles of thunder can be anticipated at btv/slk/rutland/mpv btwn 19z-21z this aftn with boundary, along with a wind shift to the north at 5 to 10 knots. North winds will shift to the southeast tonight with some localized gusts possible at Rutland up to 20 knots anticipated overnight. These winds will help to advect a maritime airmass into central/eastern tafs overnight into Sunday with some mvfr cigs likely, especially at mpv. These lower clouds may impact rutland/btv/pbg and slk at times with some mvfr conditions. Otherwise, any leftover showers will dissipate by 22z this evening with mainly dry conditions prevailing through 18z Sunday. Outlook... Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Memorial Day: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Taber NEAR TERM...Evenson/Haynes/Taber SHORT TERM...Clay LONG TERM...Clay/SLW AVIATION...Taber is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.