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994
FXUS61 KBTV 081951
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
351 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Scattered showers with some embedded thunderstorms will continue this
afternoon. Some small hail and gusty winds are possible within
thunderstorms. The thunderstorm threat will come to an end this
evening, and the remainder of the night will be damp and cloudy
with some drizzle. The rest of the week into early next week
will see at least chances for showers continue each day as we
enter into a wet and unsettled weather pattern.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 348 PM EDT Wednesday...After some breaks in the clouds developed
this afternoon, the area has destabilized over the past few hours
and some convective showers with some embedded thunderstorms
have popped up. SPC mesoanalysis analyzing up to 500 J/kg
SBCAPE developing as the cap erodes. Best instability is
analyzed over the southern Champlain Valley and into Essex
County, NY, where the most clearing has occurred. Expect the
instability to begin to wane over the next couple of hours as we
move past peak diurnal heating and cloud cover increases. Best
window for thunderstorms continues to be between now and 6 PM.
Have already had several reports of pea sized or slightly larger
hail within thunderstorms, and seeing evidence on radar to
support wind gusts in excess of 40 mph within and around
thunderstorms. Expect these threats to persist with any
additional storms that develop later this afternoon. Continuing
to also note impressive low-level helicity values especially
over our northern counties. As we progress into late
afternoon/evening, expect additional isolated to scattered
thunderstorms to pulse up and down as a shortwave continues to
move through.

A cold front will move south through the area tonight, though
impacts will be restricted to just some low clouds and drizzle.
Forecast soundings suggest a layer of low-level moisture will become
trapped under a mid-level inversion, resulting in a dreary night
with low stratus, mist, and drizzle.  Additional shortwave energy
moving through Thursday will keep low clouds around and have
maintained a few light showers in the forecast.  Some areas may see
low clouds erode during the afternoon, leading to a few peaks of
sunshine, but overall looking at predominantly mostly cloudy skies.
Very little change in the overall pattern going into Thursday night,
so will again expect lowering stratus clouds through the night
especially in higher terrain.  Low temperatures will be in the 40s
both tonight and Thursday night, and high temperatures Thursday will
be in the 50s to around 60.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 348 PM EDT Wednesday...The overall trend noted by the previous
discussion towards drier conditions for Friday continued with the
12Z NWP guidance with shortwave energy dropping south of the region
from the Ohio Valley through the Mid-Atlantic states. The northeast
will remain under a broad upper level trough though so some showers
can`t be ruled out, especially south. Dry conditions generally rule
Friday night in between shortwave troughs, but chances for showers
return on Saturday as a deepening trough over the Great Lakes will
shift the flow to southwesterly across the region. The highest
chances for showers will be across northern New York, with PoPs
lower across Vermont. Temperatures will run near normal through the
period with highs slightly cooler in the mid 50s to low 60s, and
lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 348 PM EDT Wednesday...More unsettled conditions look to return
for the latter half of the weekend as the aforementioned upper
trough shifts offshore and potentially deepens and closes off. The
GFS is the most aggressive solution while the ECMWF and GDPS are
lesser so, offering lower chances for precipitation. Being it`s
Mothers Day we`ll offer a little hope for drier weather and lean
towards consensus and blended guidance with PoPs 40-50% across the
region through Monday. Heading into mid-week conditions continue to
remain unsettled as the upper flow trends northwesterly with several
shortwave passages possible. Not looking at any impactful rain or
thunderstorms, but the chance for showers exists each day.
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&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 18Z Thursday...Isolated to scattered showers with some
embedded thunderstorms are expected over the next few hours,
initially forming over northern NY and progressing eastward into
Vermont. With regards to ceiling heights, expect highly variable
conditions across the forecast area, with a general
downward/deteriorating trend as we head into the overnight
hours. Many sites will see a mix of MVFR/VFR conditions this
afternoon, then see MVFR ceilings become more predominant into
the evening. Overnight, forecasting some IFR ceilings with some
reduced visibilities due to patchy fog and drizzle that will
persist towards the morning hours.

Winds are initially SSE at the beginning of the TAF period for
most sites, with some afternoon gusts expected 15 to 25 kt.
Winds will quickly trend to the NW by 00Z, diminishing to under
10 knots overnight.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: VFR. Chance RA.
Friday: VFR. Chance RA, Chance SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Duell
NEAR TERM...Duell
SHORT TERM...Lahiff
LONG TERM...Lahiff
AVIATION...Duell