Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 231910 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 310 PM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will continue to provide ideal spring weather to the region with fair skies and seasonably mild temperatures expected through Tuesday. Low pressure lifting out of the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic States will bring the next round of showers and a period of steadier rainfall on Wednesday into Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 310 PM EDT Monday...Just an outstanding day unfolding today as deep layer high pressure remains bridged across the northeastern quarter of the nation. Deep layer mixing and full sun has allowed temperatures to climb into the 60s in many locations which has helped erase sore memories of our cold stretch and snow of late late winter/early spring for many. With the ridge in place a persistence forecast will be offered with just some passing high clouds and quiet weather expected through tomorrow. Similar to last night, forecast lows tonight were heavily governed by blended MOS output showing inherent variability during light wind/clear sky nocturnal regimes. In general, values should fall into the upper 20s to mid 30s in the mountains, and from the mid 30s to lower 40s in the St. Lawrence and Champlain Valleys where light south/southwest winds around 5 mph will likely keep the near-surface layer mixed. Highs on Tuesday to be the warmest of the work week - mainly 60s to locally around 70 in mildest locales under light to modest south/southwest return flow as mean 925-850 mb thermal profiles warm by about 2 degrees. By tomorrow night changes will be in the air as southern stream energy across the Tennessee/Lower Ohio Valley lifts northeast and merges with a digging northern stream upper trough approaching from the west. The idea of thickening clouds along with showers/light rain arriving from the south and west later at night or toward morning still looks on track and given consistency in this morning`s model output I`ve largely kept close to our prior forecast in this regard. Lows to remain milder than past nights with continued light south flow and clouds - mainly 40s with a few upper 30s in coldest northern mountain hollows. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/... As of 259 AM EDT Monday...Looks like precipitation may be a bit slower to move into the area...but it will get here nevertheless. Looks like after midnight will be the best chance for precipitation and definitely on Wednesday as shortwave trough/deeper moisture coming up from the southwest phase with upstream trough. Idea of categorical precipitation chances for Wednesday looks real good. Low temperatures Tuesday night will be in the 40s and highs on Wednesday will be in the upper 40s to mid 50s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 259 AM EDT Monday...Phasing of the two shortwaves takes place Wednesday night and the resulting upper trough is slow to move east of the region and this does not take place until later on Thursday. As a result...can see rain continuing across the area and have likely to categorical precipitation chances holding into Thursday. Storm total precipitation amounts starting from Tuesday night and continuing through Wednesday night should be in the half to three quarter inch range with some additional rainfall expected on Thursday. Higher snow levels should help with snowmelt and runoff and we should see rises on area waterways. Upper trough exits the area Thursday night and Friday is trending dry as next upstream trough does not move in until Friday night into Saturday. Warmer temperatures aloft will exist on Friday and we should see temperatures slightly above normal. But as upper trough moves in for Friday night and Saturday and then moving east on Sunday...which puts the area in north to northwest flow aloft...temperatures will generally be below normal for the back half of the extended. Best chances for precipitation will come in that Friday night through Saturday time period...with drying expected for Sunday on the backside of the upper trough. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 18Z Tuesday...VFR conditions will persist through the next 24 hours with just some passing scattered high cirrus above 200 AGL. South to southwest winds from 5 to 10 kts will become light after 00Z. Winds then trend south to southwesterly from 6 to 12 knots with occasional gusts to 20 kts possible at KBTV/KSLK/KMSS. Only real concern is some occasional southwesterly LLWS to 35kt at KMSS terminal in the 06-12Z time frame as stronger flow aloft pushes into the region. Outlook... Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite RA. Wednesday Night: MVFR. Definite RA. Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Saturday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...JMG SHORT TERM...Evenson LONG TERM...Evenson AVIATION...JMG

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