Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 231844 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 244 PM EDT Fri Mar 23 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Mainly dry weather is expected across the North Country through Tuesday. An upper level trough moving southward from southeastern Ontario and Quebec will maintain variably cloudy conditions over the weekend, with just a chance of a snow shower, mainly across the higher elevations of Vermont and northern New York. Temperatures will remain slightly below average for late March through the weekend with highs only in the mid to upper 30s. However, strengthening high pressure early next week will bring increased sunshine and moderating temperatures. Valley highs will be back into the low to mid 40s on Monday, and into the low to mid 50s for Tuesday and Wednesday. An approaching mid- level trough from the Great Lakes region will bring the potential for scattered rain showers on Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 1006 AM EDT Friday...Only minor adjustments for observational trends attm. Generally a dry day expected. There are some weak radar returns at 14Z across srn St. Lawrence county, but it appears just virga attm based on obs/webcams in the region. May see a slightly better chance for flurries/sprinkles during this afternoon across nrn NY, so maintained minimal 20-30% PoPs. Best chance would be across the nrn Adirondacks. Highs this afternoon in the 35-40F range appear on track, except locally in the lower 40s across the valleys of s-central VT. Previous discussion...Broad upper troughiness will persist across the North Country through the end of the week with a couple of shortwaves to bring scattered snow showers. The first and weaker of these shortwaves is currently pushing south across western Ontario this morning, and it will continue on this trajectory through the day today, crossing NY into western New England by this evening. Snow showers, will develop over northern New York later this morning, mostly remaining confined to the Adirondacks. Precipitation coverage will remain scattered in nature as deep moisture will be lacking, but wouldn`t be surprised to see some of the higher elevations in the Adirondacks pick up a dusting of snow accumulation today. Elsewhere, just expect mostly cloudy skies. Highs will range from the lower 30s in the mountains to the upper 30s in the broader valleys. Scattered snow showers will spill into western Vermont this evening as the aforementioned shortwave moves across central/southern New England. The precipitation should still be mainly focused in the northern/central Greens and Adirondacks, but a few snowflakes will be possible in the Champlain Valley as well. Overnight lows will be in the upper teens to mid 20s. Any snow shower activity will wane Saturday morning as the first shortwaves exits to our east, but another stronger wave will bring another round of precipitation as we head through the afternoon hours. As with the first round, these showers will also focus in the northern mountains with another half inch or so of snow accumulation possible. This second wave will also usher in a colder airmass; 925mb temps of -6C to -9C indicate daytime highs will struggle to get out of the lower 30s across much of the North Country. Add in a north breeze with just a few peaks of sun and it will definitely be a chilly day. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 319 AM EDT Friday...The combination of short wave energy and increasing mid level moisture from easterly flow will produce a period of light snow shower activity on Saturday Night. Pw values a 0.25 or less and limited forcing will result in snow accumulations mainly an inch or less...maybe a few higher values northern Green Mountains/NEK, where moisture is slightly better. Temps continue to be tricky with expected clouds overnight on Saturday...thinking more uniformed lows in the upper teens to mid 20s. Highs Sunday with cool northerly flow...but developing sunshine...will range from the mid 20s to mid/upper 30s. Building high pres both aloft and at the surface will produce light winds and clear skies on Sunday Night...along with snow pack have undercut guidance by 3 to 6 degrees. Lows single digits NEK/SLK to mid teens...which is close to the cooler ECE MOS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 319 AM EDT Friday...Large scale blocking type pattern is anticipated to develop over the eastern conus early next week...which will result in dry conditions thru midweek along with temps trending above normal. Developing mid/upper level ridge and sfc high pres over northern New England will produce warm and sunny days and cool/dry nights for Monday into Weds. Progged 850mb to 925mb thermal profiles warm several degrees each day....combined with plenty of sunshine...will result in highs in the upper 20s summits to lower 40s valleys on Monday and mid/upper 30s to near 50f on Tuesday. Given dry airmass expect large daily swings with lows single digits to upper teens for lows Monday Night. Pattern slowly breaks down by Weds into sfc cold front and mid level moisture stream toward our cwa. Plenty of uncertainty with regards to wave developing along boundary...along with areal coverage/duration of precip for mid to late week. Have continued to mention rain or snow showers...but initially temps will be warm enough to support mainly rain showers. Both 925mb and 850mb temps range btwn 3c and 5c. Clouds may limit sfc heating on Weds/Thursday...but still have mainly 40s to near 50f in the grids...before cooling trend develops late week...along with additional chances for showers. If sfc wave develops along the boundary and moves across the ne conus...placement of heavier qpf of heavier precip and associated potential impacts will need to be watched closely. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 18Z Saturday...Aviation weather conditions are VFR this afternoon with no restrictions to vsby, and SCT-BKN cloudiness across the North Country with cloud bases generally 5-7Kft. We`ll maintain variably cloudy conditions and NW winds, as one mid-level trough moves across the srn tier of NY/PA, and another moves into sern Ontario/srn Quebec during the daytime hours Saturday. May see isold showers during the period, mainly confined to the higher elevations of the Adirondacks and Green Mtns. Have not carried any precipitation at the TAF sites (other than VCSH), though a brief snow shower is possible late tonight into Saturday morning. May see HIR TRRN OBSCD in spots overnight into Saturday morning. Winds will continue NW 5-10kts areawide. A few gusts 15-20kts are possible thru late this afternoon at BTV/MPV/RUT. Outlook... Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Banacos NEAR TERM...Banacos/Hastings SHORT TERM...Taber LONG TERM...Taber AVIATION...Banacos is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.