Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 221903 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 303 PM EDT Tue May 22 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Showers associated with weak low pressure moving across the region will end this evening with high pressure building in after midnight. A cold front will cross the area Wednesday with a few additional showers or perhaps an isolated thunderstorm across northern counties. Behind this front, fair and seasonably warm weather is expected through the remainder of the work week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 253 PM EDT Tuesday...Weak surface low pressure located over the eastern Great Lakes this afternoon will continue to provide the North Country with periods of showers this afternoon and evening before shifting east. Main batch of precipitation is pushing through central and eastern area currently, and expect there to be a brief break later this afternoon into the early evening before additional showers develop around sunset across northern New York and track eastward through Vermont through midnight. After midnight, high pressure noses into the area with gradual clearing expected by sunrise. With mild overnight temps in the 50s, mainly light winds and today`s rainfall, areas of fog are a good bet, especially in the climo favored river valleys. For Wednesday, mainly dry conditions are expected with mostly clear skies in the morning giving way to increasing cumulus clouds across central and northern areas as a well defined cold front drops southward through the region. As mentioned by previous forecasts, we`ll be on the back side of this front and parent upper trough with the best moisture and forcing generally off to our northeast. Guidance continues to hint at some isolated to widely scattered shower activity developing during peak heating mainly across northern Vermont, with some weak instability around supporting the idea of perhaps an isolated thunderstorm as well. Continued this idea from previous forecasts with any activity dissipating rapidly with the loss of insolational heating after sunset. In addition, steep low level lapse rates will promote good mixing from aloft with winds becoming brisk out of the northwest at 15-25 mph in the afternoon. After a normal to slightly cool Tuesday, Wednesdays highs will be back above normal in the mid/upper 70s. A clear, quiet and cool night is on tap for Wednesday night with high pressure centering over the region. Low confidence on fog overnight despite the clearing skies as boundary level winds look strong enough to inhibit development. Lows will run mainly in the 40s, with a few spot upper 30s possible in the colder hollows of the Adirondacks and northeast Vermont. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 245 PM EDT Tuesday...Large ridge of surface high pressure will be over the region for Thursday and Thursday night. Dry weather with warmer than normal temperatures can be expected.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 300 PM EDT Tuesday...More active weather will return for the upcoming weekend after one more dry day on Friday. Surface high pressure will slide eastward Friday, and warm southerly return flow will bump temps up into the upper 70s and lower 80s. Model guidance is still indicating that Saturday will be the wetter of the two weekend days, but can`t say that Sunday will be completely dry just yet. A cold front will drop south across our area on Saturday, widespread rain showers are expected, during the morning across our Northern zones and afternoon across our Southern zones. Then the front will stall out to our South just off the coast of New York and remain there into early next week. With this boundary to our South, it`s tough to rule out precipitation in the Sunday through Tuesday timeframe as this front may drift North or South during this time period. With clouds and precipitation, temperatures will trend cooler than seasonal normals.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 18Z Wednesday...Current VFR will gradually trend to MVFR ceilings from southwest to northeast this afternoon with periods of showers continuing but no restrictions to visibility. MVFR ceilings continue through the overnight with ares of IFR likely, especially across northern New York at KMSS and KSLK. After 12Z, conditions improve quickly to VFR with some diurnal cumulus developing with a chance for isolated showers possible across northeast areas. Outlook... Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Saturday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA. Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lahiff NEAR TERM...Lahiff SHORT TERM...Neiles LONG TERM...Neiles AVIATION...Lahiff

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