Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 201818 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 218 PM EDT Fri Apr 20 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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Mountain snow showers will taper off to flurries through this evening as an upper level system slowly drifts east over the Canadian Maritimes. Temps will remain below normal through the weekend under a cool but drier northwest flow. A warming trend begins on Sunday as high pressure builds over the Northeast. Temperatures will rise to near normal in the mid 50s by Sunday and above normal into the 60s early next week with plenty of sunshine.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 218 PM EDT Friday...Going forecast is on track so little change as unseasonably cold NW flow continues. Still a chance of some light snow showers or flurries but moisture will become shallower and with loss of daytime heating, less convective. Still looking at lots of clouds, especially in the upslope regions as cold air and the shallow moisture is trapped by a strong subsidence inversion. Temp drop tonight will be limited by the cloud cover with lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s. On Saturday the NW flow of cold air continues, but with not quite as cold as today as 925mb temps rise to about -1C. With with drier air aloft any extensive cloud cover will slide off to the northeast as high pressure and subsidence builds into the region. High temps should reach the mid 40s to even a 50 degree reading near VSF. Saturday night skies should be clearing everywhere as high pressure approaches from the Great Lakes with low temps mainly in the 20s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 125 PM EDT Friday...Large deep layer ridge will be in place over the Northern New York and Vermont area Sunday and Sunday night. Mostly clear skies and moderating temperatures are expected. Although temperatures will still be a bit below seasonal normals during this period, the weather will be quite pleasant. Winds will remain nwly on Sunday, perhaps reaching 10 mph or so during the mid-day hours with best PBL mixing. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 353 AM EDT Friday...Should see deep-layer ridge hold on as our controlling weather feature during Monday night/Tuesday as it slowly departs ewd into the Gulf of Maine. Wide diurnal range expected with continued dry air mass in place. Low temperatures Monday night are generally expected in the 30s, with Tuesday`s highs reaching the low-mid 60s in valley locations (potentially our warmest day since the 69F reached at BTV on 2/21). Thereafter, anticipate some degree of phasing northern and southern stream shortwave troughs across the Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic region. The 00Z GFS and 00Z ECMWF - unsurprisingly for a potential phasing scenario - differ significantly on potential details Wed-Thu. The GFS suggests development of a slower, closed mid- level low across the Ohio Valley with an inland track of a surface low across our region Wednesday night into Thursday. The ECMWF suggest more of a coastal low, with potentially less rainfall, especially for nrn NY. ATTM, have indicated 40-50% PoPs for Wednesday, and 50-60% on Wednesday night based on a blend of solutions. Anticipate some lingering showers during the day Thursday. Abundant clouds and potential precipitation should bring slightly cooler temperatures, with highs mainly in the mid 50s for Wednesday and Thursday, and lows in the low-mid 40s. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Through 12Z Saturday...Mainly MVFR flight conditions will prevail with a few scattered snow showers or flurries still possible through early evening. Visibilities could drop for a few minutes in the snow showers but with limited impact to TAF sites. We flirt with MVFR ceilings overnight at BTV but should remain mainly MFVR in the mountains. Northwest winds in the 10 to 15 kt range with brief gusts up to 20kts will drop below 10 knots tonight and continue on Sat. Outlook... Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Sisson NEAR TERM...Sisson SHORT TERM...Neiles LONG TERM...Banacos AVIATION...Deal

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