Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 190223 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1023 PM EDT Sun Mar 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Persistent northwesterly flow will keep unseasonably cold and dry weather over the North Country through midweek. A coastal low will strengthen Wednesday as it moves from the Carolina Coast northeastward. The brunt of the impacts with this system still look to be to our south and east, however can`t rule out some precipitation over areas of Vermont Wednesday and Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 1023 PM EDT Sunday...Forecast remains on track with much of the area experiencing clear skies and light winds. This is helping to have temperatures falling quickly and have tweaked grids to match current conditions...but overall minimum temperature forecast is on track. Thus no big changes needed at this time. Previous Discussion... Overall, near term forecast remains quiet with main highlight/challenge being the unseasonably cold temperatures. Low pressure anchored to our northeast over the Canadian Maritimes is keeping the North Country under persistent dry/cold northwesterly flow. Temperatures tonight are expected to once again plummet, though likely not quite as cold as last night. Skies will be mostly clear overnight once again, with the exception being the Northeast Kingdom. This area could see a few mid to upper level clouds overnight as a shortwave clips northeastern Vermont as it moves southeastward from Quebec. These clouds will act to reduce surface heat loss slightly in the Northeast Kingdom, but still expecting a very cold night. 925 mb temps are progged to fall to the -15 to -18 C range throughout the forecast area (about two standard deviations below normal). Light to calm winds overnight and lack of clouds (except for those associated with the aforementioned wave over the Northeast Kingdom) will allow for very effective radiational cooling overnight. The drop in temperatures will once again be aided by fairly deep snowpack. All in all, many ingredients supporting another very cold night...though not quite as cold as last night due to the warmer afternoon temperatures achieved today. Overall...forecasting low temps between 0 and 5 F in the Champlain and Saint Lawrence Valleys, and between -15 and 0 F elsewhere. Monday will be another dry, cold day, though perhaps a few degrees warmer than today as high pressure over Canada weakens and our source air becomes slightly warmer...or "less frigid" I should say. Monday night, the trend of warming temps a few degrees each day will continue, as lows are forecast to stay in the single digits above zero in most locations. The exceptions will be the usual cold spots of the Northeast Kingdom and areas of the northern Adirondacks, which will likely once again drop below zero. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 342 PM EDT Sunday...Temps will continue to be forecast challenge during this time period as dry northwest flow aloft prevails. Given position of mid/upper level trof axis directly overhead and timing of short energy...thinking this will help deflect moisture/qpf from reaching our southern cwa on Tuesday night. Fast confluent flow aloft continues over the mid Atlantic States as gradient strengthens between high pres over central Canada and low pres across eastern NC. This combined with some high clouds and approaching s/w energy in flow aloft will make for a challenging temp forecast. Progged 850mb temps warm between -10c and -12c by 18z Tuesday...with full sun and some mixing will support large difference in temps from valleys to summits. Have mentions temps from mid/upper teens summits to lower/mid 30s warmer valleys. Tue night...expect the exact opposite to occur with coolest readings in the deeper/protected valley as shallow but sharp low level thermal inversions develop, especially with snow pack. Have temps from -5f slk/nek valleys to mid teens midslope elevations. No precip/snow expected in this time period. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 342 PM EDT Sunday...Little overall change from previous several mid/upper level trof continues across the eastern conus. Still watching system along the mid Atlantic seaboard from mid week...but thinking northern stream energy approaching the international border around 12z Weds will help to deflect moisture/qpf to our south initially. However...with an upstream block still lingering have noticed in latest 12z Euro and 00z GEM runs some late system phasing to occur. This helps system become vertically stacked across northern Maine/Eastern Canada by 12z Thursday with some backside moisture sneaking into our northern/eastern cwa. The 12z Euro is most aggressive with showing favorable mid level moisture profiles...along with upslope flow and embedded 5h vort impacting our zones. Given the recent performance don`t want to completely not account for latest trends in have bumped pops into the chc range from northern VT mountains...NEK...and western slopes from Weds Night thru Thursday. 925mb to 850mb thermal profiles show values btwn -5c to -9c during this time frame...which is cold enough for snow...with some mix in the deeper valleys during the daytime heating. Still even with the latest euro qpf/snowfall will be light...but any additional shifts east or west will need to be watched closely. Temps mainly 30s valleys and 20s mountains with lows mid teens to mid 20s. Weak high pres builds into the area late Friday into Saturday with dry weather and slightly below normal temps. Progged 850mb temps between -8c and -10c support highs mid 20s to mid 30s with a few warmer valleys near 40f on Saturday. Lots of uncertainty of next system on Sunday into early the following upstream blocking prevails. Moisture/energy and warmer air will try surging northeast toward our cwa from the central Plains...while additional northern stream energy and colder air is dropping southeast over the ne CONUS. A period of unsettled and cool weather is possible...especially as we start the new week. Temps will remain on the cool side with mid/upper level trof in place. && .AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Through 00z Tuesday...VFR conditions are expected through the period. High pressure building into the region will keep dry conditions over the area and little in the way of any cloud cover. Winds will generally be under 10 knots with a direction from the north and northwest. Outlook... Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHSN. Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHSN. Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RSD NEAR TERM...Evenson/RSD SHORT TERM...Taber LONG TERM...Taber AVIATION...Evenson/RSD is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.