Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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723 FXUS61 KBTV 190233 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1033 PM EDT Wed Apr 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will pass south of the North Country on Thursday with widespread light rain and mountain snow. A plowable wet snow accumulation is expected in the mountains Thursday into Friday. A slow warming and drying trend is expected by the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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As of 1033 PM EDT Wednesday...Based on satellite trends have added more clouds to the overnight forecast and bumped up temperatures a couple of degrees given more cloud cover. Rest of forecast remains in good shape and no other changes needed at this time. Previous Discussion... Deep closed upper level low continues to lift Northeastward and away from Northern New England this afternoon. Snow and rain showers have mostly ended across our area as the low moves further away, but still some residual moisture across the Northern Greens. The next low pressure system is approaching from the Southern Great Lakes region, and will track South of our region on Thursday. Overnight, this low will approach and clouds and moisture will increase ahead of it. Light precipitation will spread northward during the day Thursday, and will be reaching our Southern zones by Thursday morning, have precipitation likely by 8am across Southern Vermont. Overnight minimum temperatures will drop into the upper 20s to lower 30s. Any precipitation that falls overnight will be in the form of snow.
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&& .SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 415 PM EDT Wednesday...Low will be passing south of our area Thursday morning. Light snow will spread from South to North across the area. First round of precipitation will move east of the CWA mid morning, with a brief break before more scattered rain and snow develops Thursday afternoon and into Friday with improving forcing developing as upper level trough passes overhead. Surface flow will become northwesterly as low passes east of New England, with more light rain and snow shower activity developing. Still looks like best chance for accumulating snow will be above 2000 feet on Thursday with several inches expected. Snow level will lower overnight to about 1200 feet. With plenty of moisture mountain upslope snow continues through the overnight hours and into Friday. Precipitation will wind down later Friday into the early part of Friday night with decreasing moisture. Warmer and drier air will return following the departure of this upper level low. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 237 PM EDT Wednesday...Our delivery of spring weather will finally arrive after a few weeks of being lost in the mail, as high pressure will continue to build into the North Country over the weekend. While Saturday will see decreasing clouds, northwesterly winds will keep temperatures still below normal as the high approaches. Sunday will see the warm air advection start to build in and temps warm to the 50s in some of the valleys. By Monday the area should be near normal with widespread 50s and mostly clear skies. Tuesday and Wednesday see the trend continue with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. The combination of high pressure, light winds, and warm temps will lead to several days with low afternoon relative humidities in the 25-30% range. Overall, a nice beginning to next week before another potential round of midweek showers. && .AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 00Z Friday...Generally looking at VFR and MVFR ceilings through the period. However...KSLK will have the best chance to see experience IFR ceilings from 06z through about 14z. The best chance for precipitation will come after 16z and move from south to north across the area...but generally looking at VFR/MVFR visibilities. Winds will be 10 knots or less through the period with winds becoming northwest after 18z. Outlook... Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR and IFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely SN, Likely RA. Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely RA, Chance SN. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Neiles NEAR TERM...Evenson/Neiles SHORT TERM...Neiles LONG TERM...Verasamy AVIATION...Evenson

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