Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 161953 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 353 PM EDT Mon Apr 16 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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Low pressure will lift northeastward across the North Country this evening with periods of light to moderate rainfall. Gusty southeast winds late this afternoon will generally decrease through this evening. A west to northwest flow will be in place as the low departs to the north and east over the next couple of days. We`ll continue to see mostly cloudy to cloudy conditions, with scattered rain and snow showers for Tuesday and Wednesday, especially in higher elevation areas. Another low pressure system moving across New York and New England on Thursday will bring additional chances for rain and higher elevation snow.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 348 PM EDT Monday...We`ve downgraded the High Wind Warning to a Wind Advisory along the western slopes of the Green Mountains. The Wind Advisory continues thru 03Z (11pm) this evening. Appears wind gusts have peaked, and arrival from south to north of frontal rainband in advance of occulded front approaching from s-central NY and ern PA will stabilize the boundary layer further, decreasing overall gust potential. Can`t rule out some localized southeasterly gusts up to 50 mph given 45-55kt on Albany (KENX) VAD wind profile at 4kft, and high resolution BTV- 4kmWRF and NAM-Nest 925mb flow of 50-60kts through 00Z. Also seeing some localized clearing on vis imagery downwind of the srn Greens and Adirondacks, so may see some localized destabilization and enhanced mixing for a brief period into this evening. Definitely a dynamic pattern with changing stability conditions over brief periods of time possible late this afternoon and evening. Continued wind gusts 45-50 mph would be most likely along the western slopes of the Green Mtns, and perhaps into the Northeast Kingdom of VT (downwind of the White Mtns). Have also seen isolated gusts around 45 mph in the Lake Placid, NY area. Will keep the Wind Advisory going for the northern Adirondacks for isold gusts 45-50 mph during the next several hrs before ending. Please see Public Information Statement for observed wind gusts across the region, which locally reached 64-65mph in eastern Rutland and Addison counties during the morning hours. Will see periods of rainfall through this evening as occulded front and strong QG forcing advances newd into the North Country. Appears PW values briefly reach 1.0-1.1" late this afternoon/early this evening. In the prevailing deep layer sely flow, will see an orographic character to expected precipitation this evening, with max rainfall expected in the srn Greens ewd across Windsor county, and across Essex County NY (0.6-0.7"). May see a few embedded convective elements, with rainfall of moderate intensity for 1-3hrs. Elsewhere, will generally see 0.25-0.5" rainfall, though shadowing effects in the Champlain Valley may result in even lower rainfall amts locally. Once occlusion passes between 03-06Z will see continued low overcast, but generally just isold rain and mtn snow showers. Overnight lows generally in the mid 30s, except lower 30s across the nrn Adirondacks. Tuesday and Tuesday night, the North Country will be in a prevailing west to WSW flow with quasi-stationary closed low positioned across srn Quebec. Will see continuation of mostly cloudy to cloudy conditions in moist cyclonic flow, with scattered rain and higher elevation snow showers, and scattered snow showers for Tuesday night. Snow levels 1000-1500` on Tuesday will generally fall to the valley floors Tuesday night, though the majority of the frequent snow shower activity will be in the orographically favored nrn Adirondacks and central/nrn Green Mtns. High temperatures on Tuesday generally in the low-mid 40s, except mid-upr 30s in the 1-2kft elevational band. Lows Tuesday night will generally fall back to the upr 20s to lower 30s areawide.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 307 PM EDT Monday...Upper trough over the northeast will continue to drive the North Country`s weather on Wednesday. Positioning of the 850-700mb low to our northeast will be prime for upslope precipitation to develop across the higher terrain with ample low level wrap-around moisture and deep west- northwest flow. Boundary layer temps will support mainly rain below 2500 feet where chances for precipitation is less, but across the highest peaks temperatures will support snow as the predominant ptype with accumulations of 2-3" possible. Flow is marginally unblocked so the majority of what does fall will be on the lee side of the mountain crests. By Wednesday night a brief ridge of high pressure building into the region will bring an end to any lingering precipitation after sunset, with lows ranging through the 30s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 307 PM EDT Monday...Looking at a wet and raw end to the work week as low pressure pulling east out of the Ohio Valley tracks across southern New England and intensifies as it tracks over the coast waters. Aloft the upper trough becomes re- established again over the Great Lakes and Northeast providing support for widespread valley rain and mountain snow showers Thursday through Friday. Additional snow accumulations of several inches across the high peaks is possible. Isolated showers will be around for the first half of the weekend as the upper trough begins to pull east of the region and high pressure builds southeastward from southern Canada. Finally we`ll see a dry day across the forecast area Sunday as the high settles overhead, and sunny/dry conditions follow into Monday as an upper level ridge follows. Temps through the period look to gradually warm from the low/mid 40s on Thursday/Friday/Saturday to upper 40s and mid 50s for Sunday and Monday. && .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 18Z Tuesday...Will see predominantly VFR-MVFR ceilings with HIR TRRN OBSCD this afternoon and this evening as occulded front approaches from s-central NY and ern PA. Frontal rain band in advance of the occulded front will bring periods of rain across the TAF sites through 04Z or so. Will see some locally gusty winds at KRUT continuing up to 40kts or so, but anticipate these stronger winds will gradually taper off through the remainder of this afternoon. Localized NE winds at KMSS sustained around 18-20kt will persist thru this evening. Elsewhere, looking for periods of LLWS through 00Z this evening with 70-80kt winds at 2.5-4kft. Once the occulded front passes thru 03-06Z, will see ceilings lower to MVFR areawide in its wake, with localized intervals of IFR possible 06-12Z. Will also see winds shift S-SW at 5-10kt thru early Tuesday morning. Will see scattered rain/snow showers during Tuesday with variable VFR to MVFR conditions at times. Outlook... Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHSN, Chance SHRA. Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN. Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHSN, Slight chance SHRA. Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Likely SHRA, Likely SHSN. Thursday Night: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Likely SHSN. Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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VT...Wind Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for VTZ002-005-009- 011-016>019. NY...Wind Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ029>031.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...Banacos NEAR TERM...Banacos SHORT TERM...Lahiff LONG TERM...Lahiff AVIATION...Banacos

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