Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KBTV 251921 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 321 PM EDT Fri May 25 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Unsettled weather is expected for the Memorial Day Weekend as a cold front moves slowly southward out of Canada later tonight and Saturday. This will allow showers to move across the area...especially over northern New York and the northern half of Vermont. For Saturday afternoon...the threat of thunderstorms will exist over central and southern Vermont and parts of the northern Adirondacks in New York. Cooler and drier weather moves into Vermont on Sunday...but there will still be a threat of showers and thunderstorms across portions of northern New York as an upper level trough of low pressure moves toward the region. This feature will move across the area on Memorial Day and will continue to bring a chance of showers to the entire North Country.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 321 PM EDT Friday...Mid level clouds continue to move across the area this afternoon along with a few sprinkles. Eventually we will see better chances for showers and possibly a thunderstorm across the northern tier of our area as upstream convection over southeast Ontario moves east-southeast into the region tonight. Main frontal system remains back up across southern Quebec Province and this feature will not move down into our area until Saturday. It looks like surface front will push just south of a Massena to White River Junction line Saturday afternoon and sufficient instability should develop along and south of this boundary for a better chance of showers and possibly some thunderstorms. Of note is the 850 millibar front is still up near the Canadian Border and it appears it will be a focus for additional showers as well. So much of the forecast area will have a chance for precipitation. Fronts weaken Saturday night and any precipitation will weaken in intensity and push eastward as flow aloft becomes more westerly with time. Strong push of cooler air will take place late Saturday night across Vermont as high pressure bring a more maritime air mass into the region. Highs on Saturday will range from around 70 near the Canadian border to the lower 80s over southern areas south of the front. Lows Saturday night will range in the upper 40s to upper 50s.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 321 PM EDT Friday...As mentioned in the near term maritime air mass moves into the region on Sunday...especially over Vermont and relative dry weather is expected for the day. Cooler temperatures will exist with highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s. A different story will take place over northern New York as a more noticeable front becomes established out across the Saint Lawrence Valley. Highs in northern New York will be in the 70s to lower 80s and there will be a better chance of showers and thunderstorms out across the Saint Lawrence Valley in the afternoon. Higher precipitable water values in this area will enhance the potential for heavy downpours with any of the showers or storms. The upstream upper trough will gradually move into the region Sunday night and while the threat of thunder will decrease...sufficient dynamic support will exist for showers to move eastward across the entire area late Sunday night.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 321 PM EDT Friday...At this time, not much has changed from the previous forecasts. Overall, conditions look to be unsettled Monday with above normal temperatures expected through the period. High pressure dominates mid-week before more active weather returns towards the end of the period...An upper-level shortwave and associated warm front will push north during the daytime hours on Monday. Showers are expected throughout the day before the main front moves south Monday night. A chance of thunder exists overnight Monday so have mentioned in grids but the bulk of the forcing and instability should stay to our north. Tuesday, skies will clear throughout the day as dry air pushes south and high pressure builds in. Tuesday night lows look to be the coldest of the period with clear and calm conditions promoting near-normal temperatures in the mid 40s to around 50. Wednesday looks to be sunny and summer-like with temperatures warming into the upper 70s. Thursday will remain dry, but warm even as clouds increase with temperatures pushing low 80s for much of the area. The quiet stretch of weather will become more active Friday as newly named subtropical storm Alberto makes its way north. Models are still in good agreement with tropical moisture moving northward, but are uncertain on exact location of low and associated rainfall. Model`s have done a flip-flop on position of heaviest precip with GFS now keeping bulk just to our south over southern New England and ECMWF bringing low pressure up the Ohio River valley with heavier rain over western NY and international border...with such uncertainty it certainly bears watching.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 18Z Saturday...Overall looking at VFR conditions through most of the period with some MVFR ceilings developing after 14z. Visibilities will remain in the VFR category through the entire period despite some rain showers moving into the area after 03z. Gusty west to southwest winds will exist through 00z before tapering off and then switching to the north and northwest over most of the area after 14z as a cold front sags southward into the area. Outlook... Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Memorial Day: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Evenson NEAR TERM...Evenson SHORT TERM...Evenson LONG TERM...LaRocca/Neiles AVIATION...Evenson/JMG

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.